Ben Linfoot free horse racing tips for St Leger Festival day one at Doncaster
The Verdict: Thursday, September 14
1pt win Heritage House in 1.50 Doncaster at 15/2 (General)
1pt win See The Fire in 3.00 Doncaster at 7/1 (bet365, Hills)
1pt win Shamwari in 3.35 Doncaster at 12/1 (General)
Fight fire with Fire in the May Hill
Day one of the St Leger Festival and rain at Doncaster earlier in the week turned the ground soft, but on a track that drains very well it looks likely to dry out from here to Saturday with only the odd sporadic shower forecast.
Karl Burke will be hoping it remains soft for his Darnation in the Betfred May Hill Stakes, as she impressed in the Goodwood mud in the Prestige Fillies’ Stakes last time, but she has been very well found in the market for this.
She is the form pick and soft ground would be in her favour, but it could’ve dried out significantly enough by 3.00 on Thursday and even if she has got her ground she doesn’t look a 6/4 chance against this opposition.
Three lightly-raced ones are immediately behind her in the betting and the one I want to back is Andrew Balding’s SEE THE FIRE at 7/1.
It’s well known Balding’s juveniles tend to improve plenty from first to second start and while he has increased his number of juvenile debut winners in the last couple of years, few have made an impression like See The Fire did at Newmarket.
By Sea The Stars out of Arabian Queen, she could be the pick of the dam’s progeny so far after showing her class on debut when easily accounting for subsequent Goodwood winner Heartfullofstars on the July Course.
That was over seven furlongs, but improvement can be expected on her second go stepping up another furlong in trip and at 7/1 she rates a good bet to sink Darnation and co.
The Verdict: Back SEE THE FIRE in the May Hill
Wham, bam, thank you Sham
In the feature Group 2 Betfred Park Hill Stakes Sumo Sam heads the betting on the back of her eight-and-a-half length Lillie Langtry romp at Goodwood in heavy ground.
Again, conditions aren’t going to be as testing as that here and she looks unlikely to replicate the form judging by her overall profile.
Several of the opposition are stepping up in trip to the extended 1m6f for the first time, so a good deal of guesswork is required, but I can’t help but think Joseph O’Brien’s SHAMWARI has been underestimated at 12/1.
She was pulled out due to soft ground at Galway on Tuesday and if the ground is genuinely soft I guess there’s a chance she’ll be withdrawn again, but we’ll get our money back if that’s the case and I want her onside.
Hugely unexposed after just five starts including only three on turf, her best runs have been staying-on efforts over 1m4f and the extra couple of furlongs could bring out the best in her.
She chased home Tower Of London at Leopardstown on just her second start in June, while last time, in the Prix Minerve, she ran into trouble late in proceedings when just getting going under Ryan Moore (see replay on Youtube, below).
Joseph O’Brien has a good record at the Leger meeting, winning the big race with Galileo Chrome and this race with Pista – who was similarly bred by a US Triple Crown winner – and his horses are running really well.
He’s added cheekpieces, too, probably just to help her keep in touch and travel into the race better, the same headgear helping stablemate Lumiere Rock improve significantly at the weekend.
Shamwari will have to improve as well, but there are loads of reasons why she could do and the price looks fair in an open race.
The Verdict: Back SHAMWARI in the Park Hill
On the House in Carrie Red
Finally, James Fanshawe’s HERITAGE HOUSE appeals in the British Stallion Studs EBF ‘Carrie Red’ Fillies’ Nursery that opens the ITV4 action.
The daughter of Dark Angel learnt plenty in her novice races including twice over five furlongs, but she thrived for stepping up to six for her handicap debut at Leicester.
A first-time tongue-tie may well have helped, too, but whatever it was she tanked through her nursery bow and won thanks to a controlled performance without jockey Dylan Hogan having to get too animated.
A rise of 5lb was fair and last year’s winner of the same Leicester race, Bonny Angel, got an identical hike and came out of it to land this contest by four lengths.
Heritage House sneaks into this at the bottom of the weights, Jim Crowley takes over in the saddle and Fanshawe has a 20% strike-rate at this track the last five years (14 wins from 72), so there’s plenty in her favour at 15/2.
The Verdict: Back HERITAGE HOUSE in 1.50 Doncaster
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