Ben Linfoot free horse racing tips for Super Sprint Saturday at Newbury and Irish Oaks
The Verdict tips: Saturday, July 22
1pt win Ehraz in 3.00 Newbury at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Chief Black Robe in 3.15 Market Rasen 20/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Rosario in 3.35 Newbury at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4; bet365 25/1)
1pt win Bluestocking in 3.45 Curragh at 13/2 (BetVictor, Ladbrokes)
Beckett’s ‘stock to rise in Ireland
With the ground turning softer and more rain to come Savethelastdance has gone odds-on for the Juddmonte Irish Oaks at the Curragh on Saturday.
Her Chester romp in testing conditions is the main reason for that, but the form of the Cheshire Oaks in behind her has been predictably woeful and it could well be that the best three-year-old middle-distance fillies didn’t run in the Oaks at Epsom, either.
The Oaks field are 0/6 subsequently so far, headlined by Soul Sister’s reverse in France, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Ribblesdale proved to be a more prolific winner-finder come the season’s end.
The Royal Ascot form is well represented here with the first three reopposing, including Savethelastdance’s stablemate Warm Heart, who received an excellent ride from Ryan Moore in Berkshire, staying out of trouble as those in behind struggled for room.
BLUESTOCKING was one of those disadvantaged by how it all panned out, but she ran strong to the line in the style of a filly who gets the trip well and significant improvement is expected from her on just her fourth racecourse start.
Beaten just a head by Warm Heart at Newbury on the second start of her career, there isn’t a lot between these two and the Ribblesdale winner probably just did her for tactical pace at Royal Ascot.
That will be less important in a testing ground Irish Oaks around the Curragh and Bluestocking, by Camelot out of a Group 3 soft ground winner, could really thrive on the softest ground she’ll have ever encountered.
Beckett won the Irish Derby with another Juddmonte-owned horse, Westover, when employing the services of Colin Keane and the top Irish jockey is booked again here, going for his second win in the race following his victory on another daughter of Camelot, Even So, back in 2020.
Aidan O’Brien hasn’t dominated this race like he has other Irish Group 1s, winning it ‘just’ six times overall and once in the last six years.
Savethelastdance could easily be number seven, but at the odds there are enough reasons to have a go at her and Bluestocking at 13/2 fits the bill nicely.
The Verdict: Back BLUESTOCKING for the Irish Oaks
Take Teal to land Super Sprint pot
The UK action is headlined by the Weatherbys Super Sprint and there’s another short-priced hotpot to take on here in the shape of William Haggas’ Relief Rally.
She is the undoubted form pick, but this is no race to be confident about a highly-rated one at short odds because of the huge leaps of improvement possible from all angles.
I highlighted in the Saturday panel piece that several horses rated north of 100 have been beaten in this race, including Ventura Rebel (5/4), Chipotle (15/8), Vintage Clarets (3/1) and Hototo (5/1), so it really is worth looking elsewhere for each-way value.
The one I like is Roger Teal’s ROSARIO, as he made a deep impression at Ffos Las on debut when wearing down a subsequent winner in Heed The Call with a very promising debut win. Weak in the market beforehand, it looks significant he was good enough to win on debut as his trainer very rarely has a first time out juvenile winner (just six before Rosario) and when they do win first time up they are usually good.
Tip To Win (peak official rating 117) and Kenzai Warrior (103), would be two of the best horses Teal has ever trained and they both won on debut, while another first-time out 2yo winner Cochabamba improved significantly on her second start.
Rosario’s pedigree is all speed being by Harry Angel out of an Argentinian five-furlong G1 winner and he’s got a lovely stands’ side draw (high numbers have dominated this race) where he can overhaul the pace down the middle, just as he did at Ffos Las (see video replay, below).
With improvement anticipated he’s worth an each-way play at around 20/1.
The Verdict: Back ROSARIO in the Weatherbys Super Sprint
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Ehraz to come of age in Hackwood
Richard Hannon has a great record in the Super Sprint and on this card in general, having won the Group 3 bet365 Hackwood Stakes twice in the last five years.
One of those was for Shadwell with Jim Crowley on board and lightning could strike twice in the race with EHRAZ who has long promised to make his mark at pattern level.
He’s lightly-raced for a four-year-old having had just nine starts and that suggests he hasn’t been the easiest to train, but he has put in his best performance on his second start each season and now could be the time to catch him.
His second run last season came in a Listed race at this track when he put in a career-best performance, unlucky to go down a short head to Tiber Flow after making up loads of ground, so it’s no wonder Hannon has targeted this race back at Newbury.
Ehraz comes into this race on the back of a 112-day break, but this is his second start of the season following his reappearance in heavy ground at Doncaster’s Lincoln meeting, where he was third to Vadream in the Cammidge Trophy.
That was an encouraging run, as Vadream was thriving during the wet spring and Ehraz was keen out wide with no cover, having to do the donkey work on his own in energy-sapping conditions.
He did well to pull away from the rest of the field in third and it was a nice platform from which to work from this campaign, this race at Newbury on better ground much likely to play more to his strengths.
Hannon has applied the blinkers in a bid to eke out more, trying to encourage his reportedly excellent homework to come out on the track, and in an open race he’s worth getting onside at 12s.
The Verdict: Back EHRAZ in the Hackwood Stakes
Chief a big price to continue winning run
Finally, I was going to leave the Unibet Summer Plate Handicap Chase alone at Market Rasen with Francky Du Berlais having solid claims of landing the hat-trick for Peter Bowen, but CHIEF BLACK ROBE is too big to ignore at 20/1.
Fergal O’Brien’s seven-year-old has barely seen another rival since he moved to the Gloucestershire yard from Myles Osborne, his experience between the flags giving him the base to tear through the handicap under Rules.
He started at this track off a mark of 88 in May and trounced the opposition, before he did the same at Newton Abbot, twice, off 95 and 107, and at Worcester last time off 115 where he was a cosier winner than the three-length winning margin suggests.
The amateur jockey Mr Tom Broughton has steered him around for those four wins and takes the ride again, and while the horse takes a steep rise in grade here he could still be absolutely chucked in up just 6lb to 121.
This could well be the day he finds his level, but nobody can be sure and the bookies are dangling too big a carrot to find out with 20/1 generally available.
The Verdict: Back CHIEF BLACK ROBE in the Summer Plate
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