Ben Linfoot free horse racing tips for York Dante Festival day three and Newbury

The Verdict tips: Friday May 19

1pt win Dorothy Lawrence in 1.50 York at 7/1 (General)

1pt win Tuxedo Junction in 2.05 Newbury at 8/1 (bet365)

1pt win Tatterstall in 5.15 York at 14/1 (General)

Lawrence a winner in disguise

It looks a trappy card at York on Friday with the feature Boodles Yorkshire Cup a case in point, St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov having his first run of the season against horses like Broome and Quickthorn who were running out in Dubai two months ago.

Plenty of guesswork is required over the fitness of these stayers and the preceding Knights Solicitors Handicap over 10 furlongs is just as puzzling with the two market leaders, Nobel and Aramaic, returning from 202 and 608 days off, respectively.

It’s an unusual situation but I’d rather strike a bet on the two-year-old race, the Listed Clipper EBF Marygate Fillies’ Stakes that opens the card, with Karl Burke’s DOROTHY LAWRENCE appealing at the prices.

She has to find over three lengths with the 6/4 favourite Persian Dreamer who was too quick for her at Newmarket a month ago, but the selection is expected to improve significantly for that run and at the odds I’m backing her to reverse the form.

The daughter of Soldier’s Call shaped really well on debut after running in a different group to the Amo Racing filly and wasn’t asked a serious question in an educational run.

Burke’s juveniles can improve significantly for first to second run – just like the same owner’s Pillow Talk did in this race last year – and Dorothy Lawrence is a half-sister to three winning siblings who all scored on their second start.

In contrast, none of Persian Dreamer’s three half-siblings improved from first to second start, so I’m nowhere near as convinced as the market that the form will be upheld and at 7/1 Dorothy Lawrence looks the bet.

The Verdict: Back DOROTHY LAWRENCE in the Marygate

Tatterstall worth waiting for

I’m going to wait for the closing Irish Champions Festival Handicap over five furlongs for the only other York bet as Michael Dods’ TATTERSTALL looks worth chancing at 14/1.

The son of Bungle Inthejungle is actually 6lb wrong under his penalty after winning at Wolverhampton last week, where he made all from a wide stall despite drifting all the way over to the near-side rail, but he looks much improved for being gelded.

I liked the early speed he showed to dominate that Wolverhampton maiden, something that can be a potent weapon at York, and I’d expect him to race prominently down the centre of the track under Connor Beasley from stall 13.

We’ve seen further evidence of Dods’ prowess with sprinters this week, as if we needed more, and it looks significant that he’s running this horse quickly under a penalty.

Dods is six from 15 at 40% when he runs a five-furlong sprinter under a 6lb penalty within a week, while three of the beaten horses were second, so with his stable in terrific form his judgment is trusted here.

The Verdict: Back TATTERSTALL in the 5.15 York

Tuxedo suits Newbury for Fanshawe

There’s a cracking race at Newbury on ITV4 as well in the shape of the Unibet Handicap over 10 furlongs and James Fanshawe’s TUXEDO JUNCTION looks the bet here.

The race in which he was third behind Mustazeed and Time Interval looks the key form guide to concentrate on with both rivals reopposing but there are reasons to believe the son of Iffraaj can reverse the form.

Firstly, he is 6lb better off with Mustazeed and 5lb better off with Time Interval, so he’s got a big chance straight away from a weights and measures perspective, but the key factor could be the ground.

It was testing soft ground at that Newbury meeting and Tuxedo Junction did well to plough his way through it, both his form at three and his pedigree strongly hinting he needs better conditions to show his best.

All the stars have aligned here, then, and odds of 8/1 look big.

The Verdict: Back TUXEDO JUNCTION in the 2.05 Newbury

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