Best NBA prop picks January 16: Back Giannis and fade Trae Young
There are nine NBA games spread throughout Monday’s MLK Day holiday slate.
The pregame narrative: Giannis Antetokounmpo is back and should feast on the glass against one of the league’s worst rebounding teams. We’re also backing CJ McCollum to pile up assists for the short-handed New Orleans Pelicans and fading Trae Young against the Miami Heat.
Find all our best NBA props picks for January 16 below.
Odds as of 10:57 a.m. ET on 01/16/2023.
NBA prop picks
Best Bet: Giannis over 12.5 rebounds (-120)
Giannis will make his return to the court today after missing each of the past two games with a minor knee injury.
He cleared this line in six of his last 10 prior to being sidelined, averaging 14.8 rebounds in those contests. It’s worth noting that Giannis recorded 18-plus boards in four of those games — they don’t call him the Greek Freak for nothing.
He shouldn’t face too much trouble on the glass against an Indiana Pacers team that traded away its best rebounder — Damontas Sabonis — in the offseason. Tyrese Haliburton has been a great addition to the Pacers but his strengths lie elsewhere.
Indiana’s opponents are averaging the fourth-most rebounds per game (53.9) this season. That number is even worse when the Pacers are on the road (55.5).
Giannis hasn’t suited up against the Pacers yet this season but he cleared this number in two of the three games against Indiana last year.
Key stat: Giannis is averaging the second-most rebounds per game this season (11.9).
Quick picks
McCollum over 5.5 assists (-117): We expect McCollum to turn in another big performance as Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram remain sidelined.
McCollum has cleared this mark in three of the last five games — which coincides with Zion’s recent injury. He’s also averaging 6.3 helpers for the Pelicans without Williamson in the lineup.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are stingy on defence but this line still seems low for a guard who handles the ball and is averaging 35.7 minutes per game in January.
Young under 26.5 points (-107): It’s been a down year for Young in many aspects and we’re happy to fade him against one of the league’s top defences.
Atlanta’s point guard has been averaging 27.5 PPG but he’s also shooting 42.3% from the field, which ranks 106th among qualified players.
Miami has the fourth-best defensive efficiency in the NBA (108.3) and holds its opponents to the second-fewest points per game (108.5). When Young played the Heat earlier this season he was held to 22 points.
