Betfred Derby preview: David Ord on the big Epsom questions

For or against Auguste Rodin?

Probably somewhere between Ben Linfoot’s ‘worst Derby favourite ever’ headline and Aidan’s ‘all about the one horse’ mantra of recent weeks.

The case for the prosecution isn’t based solely on his 2000 Guineas blow-out in testing conditions, but it forms a big part of my learned friend’s argument. It’s one that doesn’t hold much water with me, pardon the pun, for all it was a completely underwhelming performance.

But there were so many in that race and at Newmarket on that day, where incessant rain turned the ground, in Timeform’s opinion, to heavy. Horses struggled to get out of it. No excuses have been put forward other than an early bump. Dusting him down and getting ready to show what he’s really about on Saturday week has been the plan ever since.

But what – they say – about the form of his Futurity win at Doncaster? More holes in it than a well-known if not well-loved Swiss cheese. There’s the errant path taken by eventual third Holloway Boy when off the bridle. He’s only run once since and was down the field in the Guineas. Worst Doncaster third ever, anyone?

Epictetus was second, beaten three-and-a-half lengths. His limitations were seemingly exposed in the Dante where he ran a solid race to be beaten just over two lengths into fifth behind The Foxes.

Doncaster fourth Dancing Magic was beaten 22 lengths in the Dante, so we’re not exactly reaching for the Timeform hot race flag when looking back to Town Moor.

Auguste Rodin could be a completely different proposition over a mile-and-a-half on fast ground. Maybe he won’t be. Maybe Ben’s right. Maybe Aidan will be the one justified in the glorious Epsom sunshine. Definitely Maybe about him.

Will Military Order start favourite?

I’m not sure. He’s solid – and solid can win you a Derby. It did for his brother Adayar and when you’re 4/1 the field with 10 days or so to go then it’s unlikely there’s a superstar lurking somewhere in the Epsom line-up.

Steady progress is what he’s made from a Nottingham maiden at two through a conditions race in the Newbury mud and Lingfield Derby trial on the sand. He came, he saw, he conquered.

In doing so he’s achieved a Timeform rating that is on a par with what’s required to go close in a normal Derby. We know he’ll stay the distance and he could improve again.

Ed Walker likes the Lingfield runner-up Waiporo, comparing him favourably with English King who was sent off second-favourite at Epsom having won the same trial (on turf) for the stable.

To be fair he'd need to be better than him to win a Derby but plenty of people think he's a player too. So there's substance to this form and if you want solid, then Military Order's your man.

But what about the Frankie factor?

It could well and truly kick in couldn’t it. Arrest, when I started writing this, was almost double the price of Military Order. He isn't now and I'm not that slow a typist.

Frankie and the son of Frankel headlined the Breakfast With The Stars, no sorry, Derby Gallops Morning, event and the man on a worldwide farewell tour said he had a “great chance” of winning the blue riband for a third and final time.

John Gosden was quick to stress he doesn’t feel Arrest needs deep ground – he had it when winning the Chester Vase – and is a horse with stamina and “a change of gear”.

Two key components those when it comes to a Derby.

On Timeform ratings he’s three pounds below top-rated Military Order which represents, as a very rough estimate, a couple of lengths. And what’s that between friends? A spot of traffic around Tattenham Corner, having to switch round a weakening rival, handling the camber a little better.

Dettori will be front and centre of the Derby build-up and wherever he goes, his mount follows.

So Dubai Mile must be a player too?

Yes, he beat Arrest in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud last year didn’t he – showing tremendous resolution in the finish.

Maybe he was more battle-hardened than his rival – no, he definitely was – and for all his 2000 Guineas fifth suggested he was ready to go up in trip, and for all owner Ahmad Al Shaikh has a remarkable record at finding a colt to hit the frame at a big price in a Derby, and for all his 2023 runner is teak-tough, as so many of his Kingsley Park stablemates have been over the years... I think Arrest has progressed past him.

We haven’t even got to the Dante yet

No – and the beauty of the York race this year is you can interpret it any way you want, bend the race to back up any argument you’re making (unless it’s that Flying Honours and Canberra Legend shaped like Derby winners).

The Foxes looked like a rock-solid Group Two horse who would relish ten furlongs going into the… Group Two over ten furlongs, and duly delivered. Now he has to become a Group One, mile-and-a-half colt.

Andrew Balding has seemed to warm to the idea with every interview and he deserves the chance to see if he is, but three of those in behind will be targeting revenge.

Take White Birch for example – Dancing Brave to the winner’s Shahrastani at York, alright that’s stretching it, but he thundered home for second having taken longer to find top gear. He looked like he’ll get a mile-and-a-half there and is going forward.

So too – at a rate of knots – is Passenger. He’s a throwback, a Wood Ditton winner with Classic aspirations. That race in a bygone era was a traditional starting point for future Group horses who were unable to make the track at two.

Following the advent of all-weather racing, they’re more likely to take the A1 up to Newcastle for a quick sighter while the rest of us are trying to find the Christmas decorations in the loft rather than wait for the longer days of April.

The dogs were barking about his improved homework before York, and he travelled like the best horse in the race for much of the contest before being short of room for a crucial and prolonged period after the two-furlong marker.

He came home to dead-heat for third and is an exciting prospect. But connections now have a dilemma. Is it time for the short game or a longer-term vision? Sir Michael Stoute will need to borrow Johnny G’s big dice to give him the green light with the calmer waters of Royal Ascot just around the corner. His instinct will be to sit. But faint heart never a fair maiden – or a Derby – won.

This is a wide-open renewal. How would they feel, watching on from Freemason Lodge, if The Foxes, White Birch and Continuous fought out the finish at Epsom as their son of Ulysses looked over his stable door, trying to work out how the Derby had gone off three hours early?

And that’s if Continuous even runs. Aidan O’Brien was saying on Monday that he was only 75% ready for York but pondered too that maybe he’s a colt who wants a flat track. Ascot and the Curragh lie ahead, and he needs supplementing into the Derby too. So…

A single Ballydoyle bullet?

It seems that way. I’m sure others will be left in “just in case” but one-by-one at the start of the week the master trainer went down his list and it came down to only August Rodin. It was ever thus.

It also removes the possibility of the old Aidan Hail-Mary in the style of Serpentine or Wings of Eagles.

There were a couple of possibilities this year too. Espionage is a son of Galileo out of a Ribblesdale winner who was second in a Group One at Saint-Cloud on his final start at two. He’s still in the Derby but we’ve yet to see him this year – or hear his name mentioned when his trainer goes through his ‘possibles’.

There was talk, two ‘possibles’ lists ago, of Antepost Value Bet selection Gooloogong heading straight to Epsom. Now he’s dropped off the list altogether. He might be on the next one, he might not.

Don’t forget Sprewell

I nearly did – but we shouldn’t! Here’s the third of the Irish big guns for Epsom and he looked very exciting when sweeping three lengths clear of his rivals inside the final furlong of the Leopardstown Derby Trial.

He’d be a hugely popular winner for Jessica Harrington and is another who will be travelling over with a realistic chance of winning the great race.

He appeals as the sort who will handle the undulations of Epsom and stay, while the turn of foot he showed last time could be a potent weapon.

It’s a Derby full of coulds isn’t it. Where are you? With the solid Military Order, do you retain faith in Aidan and Auguste Rodin or are you a romantic siding with Frankie and Arrest?

I think he might start favourite you know. Arrest. It’s as bold a call as I want to make at this stage. In fact, I should have said could start favourite. Don’t want to be quite that bold, not when it comes to the 2023 Betfred Derby.

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