Betting high on the Guardians just feels right in 2023: Joe Noga
CLEVELAND, Ohio — Considering all the sports wagering going on in Ohio since January, I have a confession to make: I’ve never been much of a gambler.
I’ve never had an affinity for money lines or odds. I’ve never really gotten all that excited about over/unders or props. The games themselves have always been enough for me.
But the Guardians’ run last season sparked something. It felt like watching a high roller working his way through a casino, hitting random jackpots while overcoming small losses to walk away feeling like he’d just taken on the house and won.
Last season the Guardians and their front office bet on themselves, and flipped the game on its head in the process.
Executives Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff committed to seeing exactly what they had in terms of young prospects and players who were ready for the big leagues. Seventeen Guardians made their big league debuts. Many of them fizzled, but a few took off. Now the franchise has a clear picture and path forward having identified core players for the next great championship era of Cleveland baseball.
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The team committed to a hitting philosophy that prioritized contact over launch angle and exit velocity, and ran the bases with focused aggression that resulted in finding runs where other teams couldn’t.
The Guardians cashed it all in with an unexpected division title and a deep playoff run when just about everybody (myself and my colleagues included) had picked them to finish well out of contention in the American League Central Division.
This season, it seems unwise to bet against them.
They have an ace in Shane Bieber that is as consistent as any starter in the AL and a lock to finish near the top of the Cy Young Award ballot. With 30 starts, Bieber will likely bring you something north of 15 wins and 200 innings.
They have one of the premiere two-way infielders in the AL in Andrés Giménez, who hit .333 with runners in scoring position last year and played Gold Glove defense up the middle. A new contract in his pocket should boost the 23-year-old’s confidence and unlock all sorts of potential this year.
They have the best closer in the game in Emmanuel Clase, who converted 42 of 46 save opportunities and led baseball with 77 appearances out of the bullpen. Clase’s motivation after receiving every accolade possible in November should be to out-perform the contract he signed last April.
They have an unflappable leadoff hitter in Steven Kwan who never seems like the moment is too big for him. Kwan had the second-best contact rate (91.9%) in the majors last season and his .298 batting average was the highest by a Cleveland rookie since Larry Doby in 1948.
And they have a bona fide superstar in third baseman José Ramírez, the perennial MVP contender who showed that when he is healthy he can put up numbers favorable to any headliner in the game. Ramírez carried the club last year in the early part of the season, and then gutted out the final three months with a thumb injury that would have shelved most players for the remainder of the year.
But most importantly they have three-time Manager of the Year Terry Francona in the dugout ready to help them figure things out, no matter how big the challenges seem. Francona allows the Guardians to play their brand of baseball the right way and not worry about what is going on around them.
Last year the Guardians stood notably silent until the very last day of spring training before making any moves on their roster, and even those were to sign players who were already under contract to extensions, including Ramírez, Clase and Myles Straw.
This offseason, they addressed needs in their lineup by adding slugger Josh Bell to provide Ramírez protection from the cleanup spot and catcher Mike Zunino, who once hit 30 home runs with the Rays, to add some punch to the bottom of the lineup. Meanwhile, their roster has enough flexibility to allow young talents such as Gabriel Arias and Will Brennan to get at-bats while not interfering with the cohesiveness of a starting group that has proven it can win to the tune of 92 games last year.
Division opponents including the Twins and White Sox made splashy additions and trades in the offseason to correct the shortcomings that cost them down the stretch against Cleveland. Chicago added Andrew Benintendi and Mike Clevinger while Minnesota traded for Pablo Lopez and brought back Carlos Correa. But the Guardians are used to getting the job done while operating within their own means. They don’t look over their shoulders at what their division rivals have done. They just keep playing and making adjustments when they have to.
That’s why I’m picking the Guards to go 90-72 and win their second straight AL Central Division crown in 2023. They’ve got a year of playoff experience under their belts and the kind of firepower in their lineup to get back to the divisional round again this year. I don’t think they’ll advance if they run into the Yankees or Astros in the ALDS, but I’ve been very wrong before. And this year, I might just put my money where my mouth is.
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