Betting tips for Week 21 English Premier League games and more

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20 January 2023

16hESPN Betting and Fantasy Analysts

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16hESPN Betting and Fantasy Analysts

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Jan 20, 2023

ESPN Betting Analysts

Soccer action continues this weekend, both in the Premier League and around the rest of Europe.

So which teams should you be betting and what are the big storylines? Our analysts are here to offer all the input you need for the EPL and more.

Liverpool (-117) is floundering, dropping to ninth in the table after back-to-back league losses to Brentford and Brighton & Hove. Next up is a must-win match with equally disappointing Chelsea (+290), who sit tenth. Will either team have the upper hand in this one and can either team realistically get back into the race for a Champions League spot?

Paul Carr: Liverpool's underlying numbers remain top four-ish, but they have been both unlucky and not playing up to their potential. That bad combination makes their top-four price (+190) unplayable with the Reds 10 points back of fourth-place Newcastle United. I don't trust either Liverpool or Chelsea enough to pick a side here. I do like over 3.5 goals at +175. Liverpool's attack is still generating plenty of chances, and Chelsea's has been good enough. With two mediocre defenses, there should be scoring in this one -- even if Darwin Nunez isn't fit yet.

Dalen Cuff: The Champions League is out of reach for both these clubs. Newcastle, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur are going to be the three horses for the two remaining spots. As for this match? I mean, who knows? I don't know if there's been anything more consistent than the inconsistency of both of these massive clubs. That said, Chelsea is being forced to play a lot of young players, on the road at Anfield. I think Liverpool takes all three points.

Arsenal (-106) have lost just once in league play this season and that was to this week's opponent, Manchester United (+275). United defended their home turf 3-1 back in September. Can they rebound from a disappointing draw with Crystal Palace and complete the sweep?

Carr: United were surprisingly good against Manchester City last weekend, then somewhat unlucky to only get a point versus Palace on Wednesday. United's big issue is that Casemiro is suspended for yellow-card accumulation. He leads the team in both tackles and interceptions and is the most important part of a midfield that will be on the defensive most of the game against Arsenal. United should still put up a good fight, but I like Arsenal at close to even money.

Cuff: I'll throw in my standard disclaimer here now: I'm a Gunners supporter. Still, my mostly positive outlook on the Gunners this year has yielded results and bets cashed. I played them straight up last week against Spurs and I'm doing it again this week against United --despite the fact that the Red Devils beat Arsenal back in September. Casemiro's absence is critical, Arsenal is getting great performances from all over the pitch, but I can see United getting a goal on the counter like they did against City. So, I may also go "both teams to score, Arsenal to win" at +250.

What is your best bet for the weekend?

Carr: I'm taking over 2.5 goals (-125) for Fulham-Tottenham. There have been at least three goals scored in 16 of Fulham's 20 league games this season, and the underlying numbers back that up. Fulham's matches average a league-high 3.2 expected goals per game. Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min should both find room to run, and Fulham won't stop attacking.

Cuff: I like this Leeds United team. They are fun to watch, but they do concede a ton of goals. In fact, they've allowed the fourth-most goals in the league and 1.56 per home game. They will host Brentford, who are in the top half of the table and have scored at least two goals in every league match since resuming play post-World Cup. That streak includes games against Spurs and Liverpool. I like Brentford over 1.5 goals at +135.