Big Ten Football Odds, Predictions, and Best Bets for Week 9
It’s Week nine of Big Ten football!
Last week we went 1-1 in the Big Ten as Penn State just could not get the offense going against Ohio State. The Nittany Lions had a fumble recovery for a TD called back in the second quarter that seemed to swing the momentum in their favor until the flag was thrown. And Minnesota won the ugly offensive game at Iowa outright and covered our +3.5. That moves our season-long ATS record to 10-5-1 on the season in the Big Ten.
There are five contests this week in the Big Ten and only two of them have less than a double-digit spread. We’re going to be on a road dog and a big home dog. Let’s get it!
Best Big 10 Football Betting Sites in 2023
Big 10 Football Betting Odds – Week 9
Saturday, October 28
- Indiana vs Penn State (10)
- Maryland vs Northwestern
- Purdue vs Nebraska
- Michigan State vs. Minnesota
- Ohio State (3) vs Wisconsin
Best Bets and Predictions for Big 10 Week 9 Football
Big 10 Football Best Bet 1: Michigan State +7.5 vs. Minnesota
We were on the Gophers last week and they covered but that certainly doesn’t mean we’re in love with this team. This is the first time since 2017 that Michigan State will travel to Minnesota for a road game.
The Michigan State Spartans are in a hunt for their first Big Ten victory this season, and the struggle is real. The season started on a promising note, with wins over Central Michigan and Richmond. But since then, it’s been a rocky ride with five consecutive losses. They did put up a fight in a 27-24 road loss to Rutgers in week seven, showing a glimmer of hope. However, the dreaded 49-0 home loss to arch-rivals Michigan last week was a tough pill to swallow, dropping them to a grim 0-4 in conference play. When it comes to the betting scene, they’ve only managed to cover the spread once in Big Ten action. But don’t write them off ATS.
Now, let’s talk quarterbacks. Noah Kim was the guy under center for the first five games, but let’s be honest, he’s been a bit shaky, posting 1,090 passing yards and a so-so 6:6 TD-to-INT ratio. Enter Katin Houser, a freshman getting a shot to prove himself. Against Michigan’s formidable defense, he managed just 101 yards, but keep an eye on this kid as we all know that was a wildly tough test; he might just develop into a promising QB. So far, he’s racked up 392 passing yards in his limited playing time.
Houser keeps it for 6️⃣! ��@katinhouser x @MSU_Football
— Michigan State on BTN (@MichiganStOnBTN) October 14, 2023
But it’s not all doom and gloom for the Spartans. Noah Carter, the sophomore running back, has had his moments, breaking the 100 rushing yards mark on three occasions. His highlight was a 108-yard performance against Iowa, and he’s sitting at 565 rushing yards with an average of 4.3 yards per carry. On the flip side, the receiving corps is still searching for a standout star; no one has crossed the 300-yard mark. Montorie Foster Jr. managed just 13 receiving yards against Michigan and has 287 receiving yards for the season. Scoring points in Big Ten play hasn’t been a walk in the park for the Spartans; they’ve managed to breach the 20-point mark just once.
Now, shifting our gaze to the Minnesota Golden Gophers, they’re coming into this one with their heads held high. They found redemption after a heart-wrenching overtime loss to Northwestern and a ruthless 52-10 home defeat to #4 Michigan in week six. They were seen as the underdogs against a ranked Iowa squad but secured a gritty 12-10 road win last week, bringing their conference record to 2-2. And we played them ATS +3.5. When it comes to covering the spread, it’s been a bit hit-or-miss for the Golden Gophers, who’ve only managed to do it twice this season.
Athan Kaliakmanis is the man in charge of the Gophers’ offense, attempting around 15-25 passes per game. The sophomore QB has had his ups and downs, with his completion rate taking a recent dip. In his last two games, he connected on only 33% and 40% of his passes, tallying 923 passing yards and a balanced 6:6 TD-to-INT ratio on the season. He’s struggled as of late and we expect it to be a bit of a challenge again on Saturday.
Both teams have a very good run game. But we like the Spartans’ chances to keep this inside the number. The total is 40.5 and we think this is a TD to FG game in either direction. So get that hook at +7.5 and take the road dogs.
Big 10 Football Best Bet 2: Ohio State (3) vs Wisconsin +14.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes, led by the 6’3 QB Kyle McCord visit Madison this weekend. McCord has been solid, leading the Big Ten in passing yards with an impressive 276.7 per game. But what’s even more astonishing is his 12-1 TD-INT ratio, showing that this kid knows how to protect the rock. He’s been so good that his QBR of 87.1 has him sitting pretty at 5th in the nation. And here’s the kicker: McCord hasn’t thrown a pick since the season opener against Indiana. But the reality is he hasn’t been incredible either. I hate using the term game manager, but with the most skilled receivers in the nation and a very good run game, that feels fitting right now.
Now, let’s talk about Marvin Harrison Jr. This guy might just be the Heisman frontrunner right now. He’s leading the conference in receiving yards, racking up an average of 109.4 per game and lighting up the end zone with six touchdowns. He’s been a nightmare for opposing secondaries and will be again on Saturday, no doubt.
Emeka Egbuka, another one of Ohio State’s high-flying receivers, has had to nurse a pesky leg injury this season, and he’s still a question mark for Saturday. But if he’s good to go, watch out, because this offense is about to hit a whole new gear. And let’s not forget the running game – TreVeyon Henderson and Chip Trayanum have been a dynamic duo, sharing carries and keeping the chains moving.
There is no denying that Wisconsin will have its hands full because this Ohio State offense is a real juggernaut. They’re leading the Big Ten in total offense, churning out an average of 431.9 yards per game. When it comes to scoring, they’re 3rd in the conference, averaging a cool 33.7 points per game.
Now, it’s time to talk about the Big Ten’s West Division, which let’s face it, hasn’t been the powerhouse playground the East Division’s been. The likes of Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State all call the East home. But the West Division’s still got some skin in the game, and Wisconsin is leading the charge with a 3-1 record. The rest of the division is lagging with at least two conference losses each.
In their last outing, the Badgers had to pull off a comeback for the ages. Down 21-7 in the fourth quarter against Illinois, they rallied to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Coach Luke Fickell couldn’t help but sing the praises of his quarterback, Braedyn Locke. He said, “Braedyn showed incredible poise. We put him in a tough situation (down 21-7 entering the fourth quarter) and he performed well.” Locke, a 6’0 true freshman, had his moment in the sun and delivered. He tossed 240 yards with two touchdowns, and not a single interception, against Illinois. Sure, his completion rate was a modest 51.2%, but he’s just getting started.
Now, let’s talk ground game. Braelon Allen is the workhorse of this Wisconsin offense, ranking 2nd in the Big Ten in rushing yards and averaging a robust 100.5 yards per game. He’s found the end zone eight times and boasts a strong 5.9 yards per carry. The air attack isn’t as flashy, with 5’10 Will Pauling as the top receiver, averaging 56.9 yards per game, but he’s only managed to score once in seven games. The Badgers have only mustered five receiving touchdowns this season, and just for a touch of humor, one of them was caught by an offensive lineman.
Braelon Allen? Certified. ��#OnWisconsin | @BraelonAllenpic.twitter.com/EbcAQ8Gd1Z
— Wisconsin Football (@BadgerFootball) October 24, 2023
And I hate to be on a backup true freshman QB against Ohio State, but this just screams a letdown spot for the Buckeyes. They passed their test at home last week against Penn State and even covered. It just feels like they’re in for a battle at Camp Randall on Saturday. The Buckeyes win 31-20. But good teams win and great teams cover. Go Badgers.
