BK’s Bets: Week 4’s Best College Football Bets

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20 September 2023

BK’s Bets: Week 4’s Best College Football Bets

Every week, Rock M Nation will post the SEC betting lines for that week’s slate of games. DISCLAIMER: Rock M Nation is not an online gambling operator, nor a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only. None of the staff will be using this information for gambling purposes and are not liable for any losses incurred due to the analysis contained within.

You couldn’t ask for a much better week in college football. There are six games between ranked opponents this weekend. That’s the most in any individual September weekend since 2006, according to ESPN. The non-SEC top 25 matchups include Colorado @Oregon (-21), UCLA @ Utah (-4.5), Oregon State (-3) @ Washington State, Ohio State (-3.5) @ Notre Dame and Iowa vs Penn State (-14.5). For what it’s worth, I love Oregon minus the points. fThe other lines are mostly in line with what I think makes sense. I still like CU this season — and it’s already been a success — but this is a different level of opponent compared to previous matchups.

Alright, let’s get into the SEC slate worth considering.

WORTH A LOOK:

Kentucky (-14) @ Vanderbilt — 11 am on SEC Network

The thing about Kentucky football in 2023 is that I’m not sure they know what they are yet. Devin Leary is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt, but he’s also thrown three interceptions. Ray Davis is averaging 7.2 yards per carry, but he has just 33 carries through the team’s first three games. Tayvion Robinson, Dane Key and Barion Brown have the potential to form one of the best wide receiver trios (if not the best) in the SEC. This offense should be better than it has been. My recommendation on this game is simple: don’t pay attention until the third quarter. Kentucky has been outscored 14-10 in the first quarter this season. They’ve outscored their opponents 69-13 in the second and third quarters. Why does it take so long for the Wildcats’ offense to get going? Your guess is as good as mine. This has the potential to be a true ‘get right’ game. Vanderbilt has allowed a combined 76 points and 887 yards over the past two weeks against UNLV and Wake Forest. Vandy’s offense is better this year than it’s been in the past, but the Wildcats are simply too much. Give me Kentucky, 34-16.

Memphis (+7) vs. Missouri — 6:30 pm on ESPNU — in St. Louis

Are you a true Mizzou fan if you don’t think this game is going to be ugly? The Tigers just picked up their biggest win in at least the past three seasons. You could argue it was the most meaningful win for the program in close to a decade. The win against Kansas State was both physical and also highly emotional. It carried weight that this game simply does not. I do believe the Tigers come out of this game victorious, and start the season with a 4-0 record for the first time since 2013. But I think it’s going to be a slog. Memphis had a dominant first two weeks of the season, but the other Tigers really struggled against Navy last week. That game comes with a million disclaimers. Navy finished the game with 50 carries. Memphis went 4-for-12 on third down and turned the ball over twice. It was a weird Thursday Night Football game, as they tend to be. I think that result is going to throw us off the scent of this being a more-than-capable football team. Mizzou wins a close one, 27-23.

BK’S BEST BET:

Charlotte @ Florida (-28) — 6:00 pm on ESPN+

You can count me as someone who will be shorting Florida’s stock long-term, but this is not the week to do it. The Gators, coming off an impressive 29-16 win against Tennessee last week, should be able to name their score against Charlotte. Charlotte’s offensive line has really struggled this season, especially in pass blocking situations. They’ve allowed 25 tackles for loss (T119th nationally) and nine sacks (T108th nationally) on the season. That happened despite playing against South Carolina State, Maryland and Georgia State the first three weeks of the season. Florida is, well, better. Charlotte’s defense was gashed through the air against Georgia State to the tune of 466 yards, and they were gashed on the ground against Maryland, allowing more than 240 yards on roughly eight yards per carry. Florida has run for more than 500 yards over the past two weeks. I have a feeling I know what the gameplan will be against the 49ers. Give me Florida, 41-10.