BK’s Bets: Week 0’s Best Bets

rockmnation.com

21 August 2023

Every week, Rock M Nation will post the SEC betting lines for that week’s slate of games. DISCLAIMER: Rock M Nation is not an online gambling operator, nor a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only. None of the staff will be using this information for gambling purposes and are not liable for any losses incurred due to the analysis contained within.

Ladies and gentlemen, we are BACK!

Well, kinda.

It’s week zero of the college football season, and that means the return of BK’s best bets. I want to be very clear - this is purely for entertainment and content purposes. I’m not trying to pose as some sports betting expert. I’m just a guy like the rest of you who watches a bunch of football, consumes a whole lot of football content and wants to share what my leans are going into each college football weekend of the season.

So, let’s do this. The return of BK’s Best Bets. It’ll be a weekly feature on the site. Here’s to hoping we unearth some good bets that win us all lots of money.

Week zero is a (very) short slate with only one SEC lines to choose from, so let’s get right to it.

WORTH A LOOK:

Navy (+20.5) @ Notre Dame — 1:30 pm on NBC (Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland)

I don’t have the guts to actually bet it, but I’m always in favor of taking a chance on a service academy in the season-opener. The triple-option is tough as hell to defend when it’s operating at a high level and the triple option also drains the clock remarkably quickly, making it more difficult for opponents to rack up the yards and the points. Navy only lost one game by at least 20 points last year, and it came against Memphis. Sam Hartman’s arrival in South Bend is what makes me nervous. He’s a more than capable quarterback who could help Notre Dame with some quick strikes to rack up the points. If not for his arrival, I would be hammering the Midshipmen plus the points. Give me Notre Dame in a closer-than-expected game, 30-13.

San Jose State @ USC (-30.5) — 7:00 pm on Pac 12 Network

Lincoln Riley loves racking up big time offensive games against lesser opponents early in the season. Since taking over as a head coach, his team has scored 40+ points in all nine early-season matchups against G5 opponents since taking over as Oklahoma’s head coach in 2017. Caleb Williams alone could help keep that trend alive against San Jose State’s 94th ranked defense in SP+. The ability to put up points isn’t really the question with USC, though. The ability to keep points off the board for the opposition very much is. San Jose State returns more offensive production than every college football team not named kansas, and that might be enough for the Spartans to put up 20-24 points. Will USC be incentivized to drop a 50-burger, or will they pull off the dogs to keep everyone healthy in their quest to make the CFP? I think it’ll be the former, because this is Lincoln Riley we’re talking about. But I’m not confident enough in that call to make a firm choice one way or the other. Give me USC, 52-20.

BK’S BEST BETS:

Hawaii @ Vanderbilt (-16.5) — 6:30 pm on SEC Network

You might be asking yourself: When was the last time Vanderbilt was favored by this many points against an FBS opponent? It’s a fair question. It’s been nearly four years, dating back to October 12th, 2019 against UNLV. The Commodores lost that game, 34-10, despite being favored by 16.5 points. So, yeah, this is new ground for Vandy. Part of that is a result of Vanderbilt getting more feisty under Clark Lea. We saw the ‘Dores beat Kentucky and Florida down the stretch last season, and they were within a score of doing the same against Mizzou. So, yeah, there’s some real improvement taking place in Nashville. But, really, this is a bet against Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors were one of the worst teams in the country last season. Timmy Chang went 3-10 in his first year as the head coach with an offense that really struggled to do much of anything. AJ Swann should be able to do more than enough through the air connecting with his favorite target, Will Sheppard, against a lackluster Hawaii defense. There will come a time when we jump off the Vandy bandwagon, but I think they’re just a tad undervalued at home against Hawaii. Give me the ‘Dores, 34-13.