Blackhawks vs. Canucks prediction: how will Vancouver fare in Tocchet’s debut?

Our Blackhawks vs. Canucks prediction is coming alongside the biggest hockey news this month.

Following a disappointing past few seasons, Vancouver fired head coach Bruce Boudreau on Sunday and replaced him with former Tampa Bay and Arizona coach Rick Tocchet. So, Tocchet will make his coaching debut in Rogers Arena Tuesday.

On paper, it looks like a good situation for Tocchet to start 1-0. The Canucks are hosting the bottom-of-the-barrel Blackhawks, who are ahead of only Columbus and Anaheim in the standings.

Therefore, Vancouver is a -235 ML favorite on FanDuel Sportsbook Tuesday night. Surely the Canucks won’t lose in Tocchet’s debut.

Right?

Moneyline: Blackhawks (+190) vs. Canucks (-235)

Spread: Blackhawks +1.5 (-128) vs. Canucks -1.5 (+104)

Total: Over 6.5 (+100) | Under 6.5 (-122)

Chicago Blackhawks ML (+190) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Rick Tocchet is a below-average hockey coach. His all-time coaching record is 178-200-60, and he managed one playoff appearance in six coaching seasons.

There’s a reason Tocchet wasn’t hired again for nearly a decade after his uneventful two-year stint with Tampa.

For all of his incompetence, Boudreau was at least likable. He’s a true player’s coach and was almost revered by the Vancouver fan base.

As Cathal Kelly wrote in The Globe and Mail:

“Everything Boudreau says and does is adorable. The guy could punch you in the face, and you’d still want to give him a squeeze.”

That said, the public will bet on the narrative that a new head coach equals a bounce-back game for the team. But given the circumstances surrounding Boudreau and Tocchet, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a letdown game from a roster filled with confused and unmotivated players.

Whatever happens, the Tocchet debut market is way overvaluing Vancouver at -235. The Action Network PRO model projects Vancouver as just -134 ML favorites.

The overvaluation has to be because of the coaching debut because the Canucks are not playing great hockey. The roster construction is poor, and the defense is an absolute mess, as Vancouver has allowed the third-most goals in hockey (182) and the fourth-most even-strength goals (118), per Money Puck.

The Blackhawks are a bad hockey team, but they’ve been playing much better recently. They’ve won three of the past four games and are 6-4 over the previous 10.

The Blackhawks are trending up and are about to play an overvalued Canucks team in a bizarre transitional period.

Chicago is worth a bet as +190 ML underdogs.