Blue Jackets vs. Capitals prediction: NHL underdog pick Tuesday

Unless you’re being delusional, the Washington Capitals are done.

The Caps are six points behind the Florida Panthers for the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference and have just 11 games to catch them.

Barring a miracle, the Caps will miss the NHL playoffs for just the second time since 2006-07 and the first time since 2013-14.

You can make some excuses for Washington’s downfall — the Caps have had comically bad injury luck — but they’ve also just been unimpressive in the stretch run.

The Capitals are 6-11-1 since the All-Star Break, which is the second-worst record in the league in that span.

Despite that, the Capitals are huge favorites over the Columbus Blue Jackets on Tuesday night.

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Blue Jackets vs. Capitals prediction: 

(7 p.m. ET., ESPN+)

On face-value, it makes some sense that Washington is such a short price against the Jackets.

Columbus has the worst record in the NHL this season and owns the second-worst goal differential. 

We know that the Jackets are bad, but this bet isn’t really about Columbus.

It’s more about Washington being overpriced on name value and the fact that the Caps are 24 points ahead of the Jackets in the standings.

While the latter is true, this version of the Caps — in other words, the lineup we’ll see on Tuesday night — would not be that far ahead of Columbus if it played an 82-game season.

Washington will likely be without No. 1 center Evgeny Kuznetsov and starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper on Tuesday night and this roster was already gutted at the deadline. 

It’s not surprising that Washington’s form has dipped of late considering the roster upheaval.

The Caps are struggling to score and that’s a concern because the defensive numbers are pretty ugly of late.

Washington ranks 26th in expected goals allowed and 24th in high-danger scoring chances conceded at 5-on-5 over its last 10 games and unlike in season’s past, the Caps don’t have the offensive firepower to make up for these flaws. 

Nothing has really gone right for the Blue Jackets in 2022-23 and they’ve been on a rotten run of form with one win in their last eight, but these odds are too wide considering where Washington is at right now.

This version of the Capitals just isn’t that much better than this version of the Jackets.