Blue Jays futures odds and best bets: Picks and betting markets for 2023 MLB season

The Toronto Blue Jays kick off what hopes to be another promising season on March 30.

Despite playing in what appears to be the toughest division in baseball, the Jays are favoured to reach the playoffs and compete as one of the top 10 World Series contenders.

Blue Jays futures odds

Swapping out Ross Stripling for Chris Bassitt looks like an obvious upgrade to the Blue Jays’ rotation. Replacing Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. with Daulton Varsho/Brandon Belt in the lineup is much less of a slam dunk.

Nonetheless, this Blue Jays squad is expected to top 90 wins for a third consecutive season — something that hasn’t happened since the early-1990s.

In the sections below, we’ll outline several Blue Jays futures markets, providing analysis and picks for a few that stand out.

Blue Jays futures: Team markets

MLB odds as of 4:30 p.m. on 03/22/2023.

The Blue Jays took a small step forward from 2021 to 2022, winning 92 games (one more than in ‘21) and clinching a postseason berth. If you expect further improvement this year, then 93 wins or above would seem reasonable — even as the intra-division competition stays tough.

Pick: Over 92.5 wins (-112)

It would certainly be a stunner to see Toronto miss the playoffs... especially if you’re bullish about the team securing 93-plus wins.

As such, the Blue Jays’ odds to reach the playoffs are heavily juiced. On a positive note, you can at least argue that they’re appropriately juiced.

At -315, Toronto’s playoff odds align perfectly with the PECOTA projections at Baseball Prospectus (75.9%).

Pick: Blue Jays to make the playoffs (-315)

For a longer-odds play, consider looking at the Blue Jays to lead the majors in home runs.

Toronto ranks third in the majors in home runs over the past two seasons (462), and its roster includes six players who’ve had at least one 25-homer campaign.

With Roger Centre's lower wall in centre field and shorter porches in both left and right center, we could see an uptick in long balls this year.

Pick: Blue Jays to lead MLB in home runs (+800)

Player markets

For a player who’s been as durable and effective as Bo Bichette, an over/under hits prop set at 172.5 seems too low.

The free-swinging shortstop has led the league in this category in back-to-back seasons, clearing this line by 17 or more hits both times.

Pick: Bichette over 172.5 hits (-113)

The win stat for pitchers isn’t totally predictive, but it’s safe to say Alek Manoah deserves ample credit for the 16 victories he posted last year.

Manoah tossed 25 quality starts (six-plus innings with three or fewer earned runs allowed) in his 31 total outings, going an average of 6.1 innings per start.

FanGraphs’ ZiPS projects a 13-win campaign for Manoah.

Pick: Manoah over 12.5 wins (-125)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. took a statistical step back in 2022 after nearly winning MVP the year prior. Still, despite a nearly 200-point drop in his OPS, Guerrero managed to drive in 97 runs (t-15th in MLB).

He’ll have plenty of talent around him once again, and ZiPS projects 106 RBIs from the first baseman, so we’re liking the over on his line.

Pick: Guerrero over 97.5 RBIs (-113)

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