Blue Jays vs. Astros picks and odds: Jose Berrios looks to build on strong outing
The Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros wrap up a three-game series with tonight’s rubber match at Minute Maid Park.
The pregame narrative: Which Jose Berrios will we see? That likely determines the fate of all three picks for tonight, as we’re backing the Blue Jays to start strong and bring home another series victory.
MLB odds as of 10:10 a.m. ET on 04/19/23.
Best Bet: Blue Jays moneyline (+100)
For the second consecutive day, the moneyline odds for the Blue Jays/Astros matchup are among the tightest around the league. And that shouldn’t be surprising for two teams with expectations of a deep playoff run.
Today, we like the even-money price accompanying Toronto in what will be a prove-it game for Berrios. The right-hander carried his 2022 woes into the early juncture of this year before slamming the door shut on Tampa Bay’s 13-game win streak last Friday.
He won his lone start against the Astros last year (5.2 innings, seven hits, one run), and now it’s time to see if he can do it again.
Coincidentally, that win over Houston last April came against the same pitcher he’ll face today — Luis Garcia. And the Jays are catching the 26-year-old at a good time.
Garcia has scuffled out of the gate in ‘23, allowing 12 runs on 19 hits in just 14 innings of work (7.71 ERA). More importantly, Houston has lost all three of his starts.
Given that the Astros are shorthanded (down the injured Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, and now Chas McCormick), a full-strength Toronto squad should take two out of three in this series.
Key stat: Toronto has won four consecutive series and 10 of its last 15 games overall.
Quick picks
Blue Jays to score first and win (+163): If you like the Blue Jays to win, this is a way to back them with a higher payout potential. It’s not a slam dunk, but it helps that Toronto is the visiting side and will bat first.
As visitors, the Jays have still only scored first in five of 12 games. So again, no guarantees here.
But the opposition has scored first in all three of Garcia’s starts this season, and he has allowed a 1.041 OPS in the first three innings. That provides plenty of intrigue for this wager.
Blue Jays tie no bet - first three innings (-106): We thought we’d see a fast start from Houston last night, but both teams held serve through three scoreless frames. Toronto should fare at least that well in the rubber match.
Behind Berrios, the Jays are 2-1-0 on the F3 moneyline so far. On the other side, the Astros are winless (0-1-2) in Garcia’s three outings.
Another push is certainly possible but, for near-even odds, it’s worth backing Toronto early on.
