Blue Jays-Orioles prediction: Picks, odds on Thursday, August 24

The Baltimore Orioles (78-48) stretched their AL East lead with a resounding 7-0 on Wednesday night over the Toronto Blue Jays (70-57), and now these two divisional foes will each be vying for a series victory in the rubber match on Thursday. First pitch from Camden Yards is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. It’ll be a battle of veteran righties on the mound, as Toronto gives the ball to Jose Berrios (9-8, 3.39 ERA) while the O’s counter with Kyle Gibson (12-7, 4.97).

This one is a true pick ‘em on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with both teams checking in at -110. The run total is set at 9.

Blue Jays-Orioles picks: Thursday, August 24th

Injury report

Blue Jays

Out: SS Bo Bichette (right patellar tendinitis), RP Trevor Richards (neck inflammation), OF Kevin Kiermaier (right elbow laceration)

Orioles

Out: RP Danny Coulombe (biceps), OF Aaron Hicks (back), RP Keegan Akin (back)

Starting pitchers

Jose Berrios vs. Kyle Gibson

Berrios got off to a bumpy start to August, but he bounced back with one of his best starts of the year last time out, firing 5.2 shutout innings with just one hit and eight strikeouts (albeit with four walks) against the Cincinnati Reds last weekend. For the most part, the righty has been remarkably steady for Toronto this year: He’s failed to go five innings just three times and has allowed three or fewer runs in all but six of his 25 starts. The key has been a shift from a four-seam fastball to a sinker, while his slurve remains as effective a weapon as ever (.212 BA against, 31.8% whiff rate). Berrios was sensational in his previous start in Baltimore, taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning back in June.

Gibson has gotten lit up in his past two starts, with 13 combined runs on 21 hits over his last 10.1 innings of work. The righty is capable of navigating six innings against anyone, but he’s also allowed four or more runs in 11 of his 26 outings this year — good luck knowing which version of him you’ll get on a given day. Case in point: In his prior start against the Jays this year, back in May, he threw seven innings of one-run ball with just five hits allowed.

Over/Under pick

The totals of the first two games of this series were 9 and 7, but that’s a bit misleading: Tuesday’s game was tied at 3 after nine innings. This Toronto lineup has disappeared against right-handed pitching of late, with a team OPS that ranks just 27th in the league in the month of August, and with Berrios dealing on the other side I’m banking on another relatively low-scoring affair here.

Pick: Under 9

Moneyline pick

This is a tricky one: The Jays have been wildly unreliable at the plate of late, but they also have the far more trustworthy pitcher. Both of these starters have had success in this matchup earlier this season, but in the end, I’m banking on Berrios doing just enough to make some scant Toronto run support stand up.