Blue Jays vs. Rays picks and odds: Fade Toronto’s offence as slump persists

The Toronto Blue Jays seek to snap a five-game losing streak tonight against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The pregame narrative: Some costly errors led to Toronto’s 6-4 loss in the series opener last night. The Jays are still waiting for an offensive turnaround, but we don’t think it’s coming in this matchup. We’re fading Toronto’s run total and are backing Tampa Bay to start strong.

MLB odds as of 9:30 a.m. ET on 05/23/23.

Blue Jays vs. Rays picks

Best Bet: Blue Jays under 4.5 runs (-141)

It says a lot about the state of affairs in Toronto that we’d advise a fade pick with this much juice on it.

But amid a 1-7 spiral against divisional opponents, and even further back than that, the Blue Jays’ bats are ice cold — especially in the most critical situations.

In a 13-game span since May 9, the Blue Jays have scored fewer than 4.5 runs 10 times. With runners in scoring position during that stretch, they have a 48 wRC+ (27th in MLB) and a .182/.272/.248 slash line.

Last night, despite notching 11 hits (four more than Tampa) and leaving the yard twice, the Blue Jays still came up short ... in the game, and in terms of this run total.

Tonight, Toronto will face well-regarded rookie Taj Bradley. The 22-year-old has a 3.29 FIP and a glistening 12.0 K/9 through four starts, and each of his past three opponents has scored three or fewer runs.

While the Jays try to figure out their offensive struggles, we doubt they’ll be able to figure out Bradley for the first time, too.

Key stat: Toronto has averaged 3.5 runs per game in its past 13 games.

Quick pick

Rays tie no bet- first 3 innings (-127): Tampa is 3-0-1 at the first-three-inning mark in Bradley’s outings, and he owns a solid 3.00 ERA in that portion of the game.

On the other side, Jose Berrios has allowed multiple F3 runs in four of his past six starts, so it’s possible the Rays could jump on him early.

It’s not crazy to look at Tampa Bay to win outright at the F3 mark (+123), but Berrios did keep the Rays scoreless through three innings when he faced them last month. So we’ll stick with the safer route.