Blue Jays vs. Red Sox picks and odds: Bet on lots of offence at Fenway Park
The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox open their season series tonight at Fenway Park.
The pregame narrative: Jose Berrios matches up with Corey Kluber in the first of four meetings between the AL East foes. We expect plenty of scoring in this matchup, with notable value lying on Boston’s side.
MLB odds as of 10:10 a.m. ET on 05/01/23.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox picks
Best Bet: Red Sox over 4.5 runs (+102)
You might be hesitant to fade Berrios right now based on his past three starts, but Boston’s strong showing on offence through the first month gives us reason to jump on this plus-money wager.
The Red Sox are averaging 5.6 runs per game, which is the third-highest mark in the majors. And they’ve been even better over their past 10 games:
- 6.3 runs per game
- 10.1 hits per game
- .289 batting average
- .841 OPS
Boston has cleared this run total in 16 of 29 games (55.2%) — including 10 of 16 at home.
The venue is important to us, as Fenway is rated the third-friendliest offensive environment by Baseball Savant. In five career starts at Fenway, Berrios has a 5.14 ERA and a 1.714 WHIP.
Not that five starts are a hefty sample, mind you, but neither is the three-start surge we’ve seen from Berrios recently.
Key stat: Since the beginning of last year, Berrios has a 6.57 ERA in his past 19 road starts.
Quick picks
Over 9.5 runs (-124): Given that we like the Red Sox to exceed their team total, there’s plenty of reason to bet the over on the game total, too.
Toronto has scored five-plus runs in six of its past nine games and scored a more-than-respectable 4.7 runs per game this year. Also, the Blue Jays have done a lot of damage against Kluber.
Now on his third AL East team in as many seasons, Kluber has a pretty extensive history against the Jays. Across 122 plate appearances, Toronto hitters have a .364 BA and .700 SLG against the 13-year vet.
Over 0.5 runs - first inning (-132): Betting on either team individually to score in the first inning is far more lucrative, but we’ll put up with some extra juice in hopes of at least one side cashing an early run.
Boston ranks eighth in yes-run-first-inning (YRFI) rate at 37.9%, and a first-inning run has been scored in eight of its past 13 games.
Toronto isn’t nearly as YRFI friendly (21.4% success rate), but Kluber has been vulnerable in the opening frame. In five starts, Kluber has allowed five total first-inning runs along with a 1.162 opponent OPS.
