Blue Jays vs. Royals picks and odds: Bet on Toronto to limit weak K.C. offence in series finale
The Toronto Blue Jays are going for their third consecutive win when they wrap up their four-game series with the Kansas City Royals on Thursday afternoon.
The pregame narrative: Toronto has held K.C. to one run after dropping the series opener 9-5 and will turn to right-hander Kevin Gausman for the finale. The Royals have struggled mightily at the plate and we don’t see that changing today.
MLB odds as of 9:34 a.m. ET on 04/06/23.
Blue Jays vs. Royals picks
Best Bet: Blue Jays -1.5 (-125)
Getaway day is a great spot to have one of your horses on the mound.
Toronto can move a game over .500 and win the series behind Gausman, who has a much friendlier matchup than the one he encountered in his season debut.
Gausman allowed three unearned runs over six innings, striking out seven in a 4-1 loss to the Cardinals, a team that’s batting an MLB-best .324 and is third in OPS. Kansas City is last in the majors in both of those categories, batting a paltry .155 with a .519 OPS through six games.
Not only should Gausman, who allowed three runs or fewer in 23 of 31 starts last season, exploit this weak lineup, but the Blue Jays shouldn’t have their hands full with Royals starter Jordan Lyles.
The veteran righty was adequate in his season debut (two runs over 5.1 innings vs. the Twins) but has a 4.79 ERA in a 379-inning sample over the last two seasons. He has allowed 64 homers over that stretch and has a career ERA of 5.09.
There’s no way we can get behind the Royals and Lyles, who will be tasked with stopping a Blue Jays team that has been devoid of power but leads the AL with a .292 average and .363 on-base percentage.
Key stat: All five of the Royals’ losses have been by two-plus runs.
Quick picks
Royals under 3.5 runs (-136): Kansas City has scored one run on six hits since its nine-run outburst in the series opener.
The Royals have already been blanked three times this season, including in Toronto’s 3-0 win last night. Outside of the nine-run game, the team has fallen under this number in four of five matchups and scored five total runs.
Kansas City is scoring an AL-low 2.33 runs per game.
Vladdy over 1.5 bases (-109): Vladimir Guerrero Jr. blasted his first homer of the season last night in a three-hit game that brought his OPS up to 1.028.
The Toronto slugger has collected a hit in five of his six games, walking three times in the other one. He has topped this line in half his contests, and he’s fifth in the majors in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
The Jays should find success against Lyles and betting on Vladdy to do damage at this price presents great value.
