Blue Jays picks and odds vs. Royals Sept. 9: Bet on Toronto to score first and win

The Toronto Blue Jays aim for another series win on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has its ace on the mound and he should keep the Kansas City Royals off the board early and allow his team to score first and win. The Blue Jays continue to be one of the best under squads in MLB and that's our pick for the total.

MLB oddsas of 10:52 a.m. ET on 09/09/2023.

Blue Jays picks vs. Royals

Best Bet: Blue Jays to score 1st and win (+102)

Kansas City will begin the game with opener James McArthur and he doesn't tend to get the Royals started on good terms.

McArthur enters Saturday's contest with a 10.13 ERA and a 5.04 FIP across nine outings this season. Opposing hitters are having no issue making contact off the righty as they're batting an astronomical .364 against him.

We're bearish about the Royals doing much of anything against Kevin Gausman. He pairs an impressive 3.39 ERA with an MLB-best 2.83 FIP.

Gausman has faced Kansas City once this season and he completely stifled this lineup. He twirled six innings of four-hit, no-run baseball in a 6-3 victory.

Toronto cashed this wager in that meeting and we're betting on a repeat performance.

Key stat: Kansas City is scoring the eighth-fewest first-inning runs per game (0.45).

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Under 8.5 runs (-121): Gausman being on the mound gives us confidence in the under on this total.

After all, the Royals struggle to muster much of anything against righties in general, let alone a star pitcher like Gausman. Kansas City has the sixth-worst OPS against right-handed pitching in 2023 (.693).

It's averaging the fourth-fewest runs per game (4.07) in the league.

The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have been one of the best under teams in baseball. They're tied for fourth and have cashed this wager in 55.6% of their games.