BNP Paribas Open Men’s Semis Breakdown

World no. 5 Taylor Fritz (+110) is a surprising underdog versus no. 13 Jannik Sinner (-130) at BNP Paribas. Taylor Fritz has been in near-perfect form recently – he’s already been able to secure one title on tour this year and has a stellar 17-4 record. Jannik Sinner, on the other hand, has had a fine season of his own, rocking a 15-3 record in matches in 2023.

Sinner’s best result this year was a finals appearance at ATP Rotterdam, an indoor hardcourt event. I think Sinner is overvalued in this position, especially as the courts at BNP Paribas have played particularly slow this year. Moreover, Fritz is the defending champion at Indian Wells and will have the entire crowd on his side the entire match.

Sinner is going to have to overcome the home crowd as well as an in-form defending champion. It’s a tall task, but I’d project this line closer to a pick ‘em (-110), which pushes a positive value onto Fritz ML.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Felix Auger Aliassime

World no. 2 Carlos Alcaraz is heavily favored (-345) to defeat top Canadian player and world no. 10 Felix Auger Aliassime (+275). Alcaraz is in top form this year, owning a record of 11-1, with a 3-0 record on hardcourt surfaces. Indian Wells is Alcaraz’s first tournament on a hardcourt in 2023, as he didn’t participate in the Australian ATP swing and Open earlier in the year.

Felix Auger-Aliassime survived what could’ve been one of the most dramatic matches I had watched in a long time. Auger-Aliassime should realistically already be on a plane on his way to Miami to begin preparing for the Miami Open.

Auger-Aliassime saved 6 match points, 4 of which coming at a score of 2-6 in the final set tiebreaker. Outside of Auger-Aliassime’s match against Tommy Paul, Auger-Aliassime’s game has looked middling at best. He had struggles advancing through his first few matches at Indian Wells, and I don’t think he’ll have any wiggle room against Alcaraz later tonight.

The courts playing slower gives Alcaraz an advantage because he is known to be a superior clay court player. Clay courts tend to play slower than hard courts.

This line so heavily favoring Alcaraz at BNP Paribas makes me think bookmakers are looking for prisoners of the moment from the Paul/Auger-Aliassime match and are looking to field bets on Auger-Aliassime’s spread (+4.0 at -110) and moneyline (+275). In my estimation, the true line of this match should be closer to -500, which pushes some positive value on Alcaraz. This match, however, is primarily a stay-away betting experience with how dominant Alcaraz can become at any given moment.