Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Game 4 odds, picks and predictions
How much is desperation worth to the NBA Playoffs odds? Apparently not enough.
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The Boston Celtics, still stinging from an all-time public pantsing Sunday, are set as underdogs for the first time during the postseason as they try to avoid elimination against the Miami Heat in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals.
Tuesday’s spread is a tipping point for the NBA betting markets, which made Miami a home underdog for Game 3, with the Celtics expected to return serve after dropping the opening two games to the Heat at home. That pressure didn’t pay out and now books seem to be bailing on Boston’s chance in Game 4.
I run down this spread and Over/Under for Game 4 of the East finals and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Celtics at Heat on May 23.
Celtics vs Heat Game 4 best odds
Celtics vs Heat Game 4 picks and predictions
Boston bettors are doing their best to block out the events of Game 3.
Thoughts of Jaylen Brown going o-fer from beyond the arc and Jayson Tatum falling back to Earth like a SpaceX rocket will forever scar Celtic pride. But lost in the deflating balloon noise of Sunday’s defeat was a solid showing from veteran Al Horford… while it lasted.
Horford played just 19 minutes but came out swinging, at least by Game 3 standards. He went 3-for-6 from the field, including 2-for-5 from 3-point range. He surpassed his modest point total of 6.5 in the first half but logged less than four minutes of floor time in the second half with the Celtics trailing by 23 points in the third quarter.
It was Horford’s sixth straight single-digit output on the score sheet, going back to a goose egg in Game 5 with Philadelphia. But had Boston not pulled the plug on the veteran forward and their starters in the final frames of Game 3, Horford could have easily gone for more.
That abbreviated appearance Sunday has kept his points prop for Game 4 in the same spot, sitting at 6.5 points for a do-or-die showdown in South Beach. The juice on the Over for this modest ask is starting to tick up, with some shops dealing it as high as -135. You can still get the Over between -111 and -117 at a few books.
Game 4 projections sit near the same as Game 3, with some models calling for more than nine points and my number coming out just shy of nine. Horford was one of the few Boston players to show any success from distance in Game 3 and he can also mix it up around the rim and hit a jumper of high pick-and-pops.
Hopefully, Horford can make quick work of his scoring prop again in Game 4 and let us enjoy the second half in peace.
My best bet: Al Horford Over 6.5 points (-111)
Celtics vs Heat Game 4 same-game parlay
Al Horford Over 6.5 Points -111
Bam Adebayo Over 17.5 Points -125
Caleb Martin Under 11.5 Points -104
Horford’s projections called for more points in Game 3, and he could have gotten well above his Over 6.5 with more minutes in the second half. My number for his scoring is higher than it was in Game 3.
I’ve been on the “Bam Bus” all postseason, and after Adebayo notched just 13 points in the blowout win, his scoring prop is down to 17.5, with his projection well above that number at 20.5 points for Game 4.
On the low end, Heat guard Caleb Martin has boosted his points prop to 11.5 O/U with efforts of 18 and 25 points the previous two games. Martin’s projections all come in below 10 with my number sitting at 9.7 points, staying Under his total on Tuesday night.
Celtics vs Heat betting trend to know
The Over is 22-7 in Heat’s last 29 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Heat.
Celtics vs Heat Game 4 key injuries
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