Heat vs. Celtics Game 5 prediction, lineups, betting odds: NBA ECF, 5/25

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After taking a commanding 3-0 series lead, the Miami Heat were defeated at home by the Boston Celtics in Game 4 by a lopsided score of 116-99. The victory cut the Heat’s series lead to 3-1. The Eastern Conference Finals now head to Boston, where Game 5 will tip off on Friday at 8:30 PM ET. Below, we’ll provide our top Heat vs. Celtics Game 5 prediction and explain how you can earn $150 in bonus bets when you sign up for DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Down 3-0 and facing elimination with another loss, the Celtics needed a winning performance in Game 4 to keep their championship hopes alive, and that’s exactly what they got with a 116-99 victory on Tuesday. The Heat held a six-point lead at halftime before the Celtics came out hot in the third quarter, scoring 38 points to take the lead. Boston didn’t take their collective foot off the gas for the entire second half, outscoring the Heat 66-43 on their way to their first victory of the series.

It was finally a full-team effort for the Celtics, who saw six players record ten or more points, seven record multiple assists and another seven record multiple rebounds in the victory. Boston was led by superstar Jayson Tatum (33 points, 11 rebounds, 7 assists), while Jaylen Brown (17 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists), Al Horford (12 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists), Marcus Smart (11 points, 3 rebounds, 6 assists) and Derrick White (16 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists) each made their presences felt as well. The Celtics also got a solid performance out of Grant Williams (14 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists) off the bench.

While Boston had a solid all-around game on the offensive side of the court, the real winning effort came without the ball in their hands. They recorded eight blocks and eight steals in the win, dwarfing the Heat’s two blocks and five steals. Smart, White and Brown each contributed two steals for the Celtics, with Tatum, White and Robert Williams III recording two blocks apiece.

For Boston, winning the turnover battle and being more efficient with shots led to the victory. Boston outshot Miami 51.2% to 43.6% from the field and 40% to 25% from beyond the arc; compounded with Miami’s turnovers, this was too much to overcome.

In the loss, Miami received solid performances from Jimmy Butler (29 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal, 1 block) and Caleb Martin (16 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block) off the bench. However, the lack of contributions from Bam Adebayo (10 points, 5 rebounds, 0 assists) and Kevin Love (6 points, 4 rebounds, 0 assists) paired with poor three-point shooting led to a lackluster offensive performance from the Heat.

Heading into Game 5, the now-home Celtics are in another must-win situation. While their performances in the first three games of the series were definitely poor, they showed incredible fight in the second half of Game 4 to avoid elimination. The question is: will Boston pick up where they left off – with the offense and defense firing on all cylinders – in Game 4, or will they revert back to the identity-less mess they were in the first three games of the series?

For their part, bookmakers seem to think Boston will pick up where they left off. Boston currently sits as an 8-point (-110) favorite on DraftKings, with (-300) money line odds to win outright. However, this hasn’t been a successful position for Boston in the recent past: they’ve gone just 4-5 (4-5 ATS) at home in the 2023 NBA Playoffs, and they covered in just 9 of their 20 games where they were favored by six or more points in the second half of the season.

While it may seem tempting to suddenly believe in Boston’s ability after their excellent showing in Game 4, the betting trends are against them. In 279 total playoff series that started 3-1, 167 of them saw the series end in Game 5, by far the most common outcome. It’s difficult to find a betting trend more bankable than NBA teams winning when up 3-1 in a playoff series.

Combined with their lack of success at home in the playoffs and as a large favorite, we think the Celtics have an uphill battle ahead of them in Game 5. While the Heat’s poor performance in Game 4 could certainly become a trend, we think Miami will get better performances out of Adebayo, Love, Duncan Robinson and Kyle Lowry this time around.

With all of this in mind, our top Heat vs. Celtics Game 5 prediction is for Miami to win the game outright, cashing in on their ridiculously bettor-friendly (+250) money line odds. If you’re feeling a little more conservative, Miami +8 at (-110) is still a great value, though we don’t think they’ll end up needing the points.

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Beyond the Heat’s money line odds, there is a player prop market that also makes the cut as a top Heat vs. Celtics Game 5 prediction. This prediction involves Celtics center Al Horford’s total points prop, currently set at 7.5 (over -115) on DraftKings.

Horford has seen increased usage going back to the Eastern Conference Semifinals series against Philadelphia, averaging 7.1 shot attempts per game over that stretch. He’s also surpassed 7.5 points in each of the last two games. While Horford has averaged just 7.3 points per game in the Miami series, that average is brought down by a two-point clunker in Game 2.

Horford has seen his play elevate significantly when Boston plays at home as well. He averaged 10.7 points per game at home this season, significantly more than his 8.6-point average over the course of the season. We think Horford, a key component of the Celtics’ offense, should find a way to tally 8 points – just two a quarter – in a must-win game that will see Boston playing hard until the final whistle.

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Here are the latest Heat vs. Celtics Game 5 betting odds for the Eastern Conference Finals, per DraftKings Sportsbook:

• Money line: Boston Celtics (-295), Miami Heat (+245)
• Point spread: Boston Celtics -8 (-110), Miami Heat +8 (-110)
• Point total: Over 215.5 (-110), Under 215.5 (-110)

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