B/R College Football 2023 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 13

College football's final regular season slate of games has arrived.

There's no sugarcoating it; this is a tough reality to stomach. While there will be ample gambling opportunities in the weeks ahead—conference championship week, bowl games and then the College Football Playoff—this is the final full betting buffet of the year.

Let's make the most of it. Let's head into conference championship weekend on a heater. Once again, it felt like that heater was in full force last weekend. And once again, the late games couldn't help us out.

As such, we head into the weekend deadlocked at 57-57-2. We've been trying to find some win-column padding, although it never arrived. To be profitable, we'll have to ensure we finally capitalize on a solid slate of games.

Before we get into Week 13, here's what went right (and wrong) from the week that was.

The Good: Washington State (-4.5) vs. Colorado: They don't get much better and easier than this. Washington State jumped out to an early lead, and the scoring never stopped. If only we had more wins like this one.

The Bad: Tennessee (+10.5) vs. Georgia: I got cute. Plain and simple. The line felt a little light, and I tried to be smarter than the public. Turns out, the public was all over this one. As an aside, the Bulldogs look pretty darn good.

With that out of the way, let's pick some winners.

For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.

First and foremost, do not watch this football game. Go shopping. Put up holiday decorations. Spend time with your families. Heck, go to the dentist. Do anything but watch this football game.

With that necessary disclaimer out of the way, Nebraska is the pick.

Looking at the records alone, this point spread would appear perplexing. Nebraska is 5-6; Iowa is 9-2. The Hawkeyes are now bound for the Big 10 Championship Game, which still feels weird to type.

But it is very real, which is where motivation comes into play. Iowa doesn't have much to play for, while Nebraska can make a bowl game for the first time in awhile.

On top of that, the Hawkeyes will play on the road against a solid defense. Oh, and they have the nation's No. 123 scoring offense.

The Cornhuskers go bowling.

Regardless of what happens in this matchup, Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman will coach the Hogs in 2024. Well, so we think.

For a program that has struggled this season—albeit against some pretty significant competition—that's a significant boost. Pittman is beloved, and that decision alone feels like a nice motivating chip heading into a tricky game.

And make no mistake about it; this is a tricky game.

Missouri is excellent, especially on offense. Last week, we also saw just how much resolve the Tigers had when they came from behind to beat Florida.

But Arkansas is a weird opponent. The Hogs played LSU, Ole Miss and Alabama tight. (They also lost by like 800 points to Auburn.)

This week, the good Arkansas shows up. Hogs cover in a close game.

An Air Force backer last week, things were looking splendid in the first half against UNLV.

The Falcons were moving the ball, the points were tallying up and we were well on our way covering. In the second half, however, Air Force was outscored 17-0. The Rebels went on to win by four, and our bet went up in flames.

Sometimes, that's how it goes.

A week later, and we're on the other side. No, this isn't revenge. There is no such thing. This is simply a wise attempt at a transaction.

At home, Boise State is a different kind of team, covering four out of five games. We backed the Broncos against Wyoming earlier in the year, and that decision worked out nicely.

Against a team that seemed to hit a wall this season—and especially last week—Boise State should do well. Expect the Broncos to get out fast and not look back.

Last Saturday, with the final result long decided, Brian Kelly long decided to play Jayden Daniels much longer against Georgia State than he probably should have.

The reason? He'd like to see his superb starting quarterback win the Heisman.

First and foremost, there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. With LSU out of conference championship weekend, Daniels will likely play in one fewer game than the other quarterbacks he is competing against.

As a result, he let his QB run wild. Daniels responded with touchdowns.

A week later, this theme should continue. LSU has scored more than 108 combined points in its past two games. Against a solid A&M defense, the production might not be that robust. Although for this over to hit, it won't have to be.

Texas A&M, of course, is about to hire a coach. Despite the change, the offense has been pretty decent of late. Against a defense that has struggled, the Aggies will do their part.

Final score: LSU 41, Texas A&M 31.

The Sun Devils are a tricky team to figure out.

In many instances, they've come close to pulling an upset. They played USC, Cal and Washington extremely tough. They did one better when they beat Washington State and UCLA outright.

Against Utah and Oregon, however, things went sideways. Granted, Arizona State played Utah on the road. As for Oregon, well, the Ducks are one of the best teams in the nation.

With no bowl game in the near term, however, this is ASU's final showcase. Playing a rival makes it that much bigger.

As good as Arizona has been for so much of the year—and the Wildcats have been excellent—this feels like a game that could end up closer than many expect.

Arizona has played on the road only once in the past five games, and it very nearly resulted in a loss to Colorado. This time out, the Wildcats will once again find a way to win. But it'll be a tight finish and within the spread.

Illinois (-5.5) vs. Northwestern

Can I win a game fading Northwestern? We're running out of time to find out. At home chasing bowl eligibility, the Illini get that sixth win by more than a touchdown.

Cincinnati (+6) vs. Kansas

The Bearcats won't be bowling, although they can end their debut Big 12 season on a high note. With the Jayhawks having lost three of five games, Cincinnati provides a scare.

San Jose State (+3) vs. UNLV

The Spartans have won five games in a row after losing five out of the first six. The remarkable turnaround culminates with a mild upset.

UCLA vs. Cal (Over 52)

Both teams are plenty capable of scoring. UCLA, fresh off a win over rival USC, puts up another solid showing. Cal will do enough.