Betting takeaways from college football Week 11, early notes on Week 12
Just two weeks left and conference races are still hotly contested, with Florida and Bowling Green the only teams to have already clinched a division crown. This week we tour the top conference races and provide early predictions on the championship games. We'll also look at a pair of teams highly motivated to keep bowl hopes alive down the stretch, plus marvel at the prowess of Kansas State in November and Northwestern as a big underdog.
Note: Lines and futures are from the Westgate Las Vegas as of Monday afternoon except where otherwise specified. Preseason lines quoted are from 5Dimes unless specified. The Wynn is the first Las Vegas book to post college football lines each week, so its numbers are used for the Sunday openers when referencing the week's biggest moves.
Adjustments and Takeaways, Week 11
Championship scenarios in the top seven conferences, and an early stab at championship game matchups and results:
SEC
Alabama needs either an Iron Bowl win or an Ole Miss loss (to LSU or Mississippi State) to lock up the SEC West. The Rebels are the only other team still mathematically alive in the race. Florida has punched its ticket in the East.
Early lean: Alabama 20, Florida 10
ACC
Clemson has clinched the Atlantic Division and awaits the winner of the Coastal Division, likely North Carolina. The Tar Heels would become just the second team (2012 Duke) other than Virginia Tech or Georgia Tech to represent the Coastal in the ACC championship game by winning either of their last two games, or getting a Pittsburgh loss to either Louisville or Miami.
Early lean: Clemson 38, North Carolina 34
Big Ten
Iowa can clinch the Big Ten West Division by beating Purdue on Saturday; otherwise the Hawkeyes need to beat Nebraska next week or have Wisconsin drop a game to either Northwestern or Minnesota.
If Ohio State beats Michigan State on Saturday, the Buckeyes still need to either beat Michigan the following week or have Penn State do it for them in advance in order to clinch the East.
If Sparty beats the Buckeyes, then Michigan State would clinch the East with a win over Penn State next week. Michigan needs to beat Penn State and have the Buckeyes eliminate the Spartans, setting up a winner-take-all clash in Ann Arbor, Michigan, next week.
Early lean: Michigan 28, Iowa 21
Pac-12
Stanford will still win the North with a win over California or an Oregon loss to either USC or Oregon State. If Cal beats Stanford and Oregon wins out, then the Ducks will win the division. In the event of a three-way tie at 7-2 with both Stanford and Washington State, Oregon would win the tiebreaker with the best divisional record.
Both USC and UCLA control their destinies in the South Division. Wins in this week's road games at Oregon and Utah would set up a winner-take-all scenario in next week's battle for L.A. If UCLA loses at Utah, the Bruins are eliminated, but USC would still be alive with a loss at Oregon, though the Trojans would then need a Utah loss to Colorado. Utah needs simply to win out and have either Oregon or UCLA hand the Trojans a third league loss.
Early lean: Utah 30, Stanford 27
Big 12
The Oklahoma schools control the race, while TCU and Baylor are still alive but need help. Oklahoma has been atop our power ratings since surpassing preseason No. 1 Michigan State in Week 2 and we're still buying the Sooners as Big 12 and national favorites.
American
Houston and Navy, both unbeaten in conference play, will meet for the West Division title in two weeks, regardless of whether either stumbles as a road favorite this week.
Temple (5-1) could have clinched but let South Florida (4-2) back in the race last week with a 44-23 loss in Tampa, Florida. The Owls are still a game ahead with two league games left for each. These are the only two teams still alive in the race, and since the Bulls hold the head-to-head victory, Temple must maintain its one-game advantage.
Early lean: Houston 35, Temple 17
Mountain West
Only Nevada remains mathematically alive behind West Division front-runner San Diego State. For their head-to-head meeting in two weeks to become a winner-take-all affair would require both an Aztecs loss to UNLV and a Wolf Pack victory at Utah State.
New Mexico has shaken up the Mountain Division with back-to-back upsets of Utah State and Boise State. The Lobos control their destiny, as does Air Force. The Falcons are at Boise State this Friday and that result will clarify a tight race.
If favored Boise State wins, the Broncos would then just need to win the following week at San Jose State and have either Colorado State or Air Force beat New Mexico.
An Air Force win would eliminate the Broncos and set up a winner-take-all showdown in Albuquerque, New Mexico, in two weeks, provided New Mexico beat Colorado State. A Rams win would hand the division to the Falcons right away.
Early lean: San Diego State 21, Boise State 17
Games of Interest, Week 11
Indiana (+3) at Maryland
The Hoosiers haven't made a bowl since 2007, but came into this season with a veteran team thinking it could do a lot better than just six wins. The Hoosiers started 4-0, but have since lost six straight while putting a scare into the league's best teams. Two weeks ago this crew went into an open date at 4-4, knowing it would be an underdog in the first two November home games but that the final two on the road were against the two teams in the divisional basements.
Losing the first two -- narrowly, to superior teams -- won't destroy this team's confidence, which is very high for a 4-6 squad. We're looking to back the Hoosiers as they push for a bowl berth, and can't really see how Maryland is giving a full field goal in this scenario. Expect this to be closer to a pick'em by kickoff.
Virginia Tech (+6.5) versus North Carolina
The Hokies got it done for Frank Beamer in his last Thursday game, and will look to do the same in his final home game. We'll back them again getting points, and then again the following week at Virginia if and only if the Tar Heels win this week to drop the Hokies to 5-6.
Arkansas (-3.5) versus Mississippi State
We'll keep backing the second-best team in the SEC until the numbers begin to credit Arkansas as such.
Georgia Southern (+14.5) at Georgia
The Bulldogs scheduled this game when GSU was running the triple option under now-Army coach Jeff Monken. The teams also played in this slot in 2012, and Georgia found the matchup to be a good tune-up for the season-ender against Georgia Tech and Monken mentor Paul Johnson's similar offense. This will be Georgia's first look at Willie Fritz's style of option ball, though, and this year it's more than just a tune-up. The Eagles were shut out at West Virginia to open this season, but the three games versus Power 5 opponents between that West Virginia loss and the aforementioned 2012 meeting at Georgia were all impressive: a win at Florida as a 28-point underdog, a one-point loss at NC State as a 20-point underdog, and a four-point, last-minute loss at Georgia Tech as a 17-point underdog. The Georgia Southern program is not afraid of the big dogs, and Georgia had better prepare diligently for this one.
Movers and Shakers
Alabama is the sole favorite for the first time this year, clocking in at 5-to-2 again this week in the Westgate's national title futures odds while Ohio State falls to 11-4. Clemson is next at 7-2, down from 4-1 last week. The Tigers are followed in the bet order by Notre Dame (from 18-1 last week to 8-1 currently) and Oklahoma (20-1 to 10-1).
Oklahoma State at 12-1, Iowa at 20-1 and TCU at 25-1 are the only others lower than the 40-1 price on Michigan State.
There are few big early moves this week. UTSA opened at minus-1 over a slumping Rice squad, and the Roadrunners are now minus-3 at home.
Oregon opened as a field goal favorite at home against USC, and was quickly bet up to minus-4.5.
Iowa can clinch the Big Ten West this week and has been pushed from an opener of minus-17.5 versus Purdue all the way up to minus-21.5
Chalk Bits
Kansas State was notoriously strong in November during Bill Snyder's first stint as head coach, and since his return to the sidelines in 2009 the Cats are 9-4 ATS and 10-2 straight up in November home games.
Northwestern was a double-digit underdog 11 times in Pat Fitzgerald's first three years. The Wildcats won just two of those games and covered just four. In Fitz's nearly seven years since then, the Cats have been a double-digit underdog 11 more times. This time the record is 8-3 against the number and 6-5 straight up. Northwestern hasn't liked it much at Camp Randall, though. The Cats' past four trips to Wisconsin have all seen the Badgers cover as double-digit favorites.
The best ATS teams are getting it done in style lately. Oklahoma and Bowling Green have each covered five straight games by double digits, and Washington State has covered seven straight by double digits. Those three schools plus Southern Miss are all 8-2 ATS this year. We've got three more teams -- Northern Illinois, South Florida and Central Michigan -- listed at 7-2-1 against the closing number, and those could all be counted as 8-2 as well using the price from a different book.
Two weeks ago in a 31-13 home loss to Mississippi State, the oddsmakers finally laid a total on a Mizzou game low enough for the Tigers to get over, as the two teams eased past the 41 points. Another under cashing this week in Missouri-BYU leaves the under 9-1 in Tigers games this year, second only to Vanderbilt. The Commodores' 21-17 win over Kentucky slipped under the 41-point total and kept the under in Vandy games a perfect 10-0 on the year. Not even notorious all-D, no-O teams like Boston College and Connecticut -- both 8-2 going under on the year -- can match the low-scoring prowess of this black-and-gold SEC pair.
