Braves 2024 season preview: Projected lineup, rotation and how Chris Sale can supplement already dominant team
The Atlanta Braves were the best team in the National League last season, winning 104 games and finishing with the second-largest division lead in the sport. That's why it qualified as an undeniable disappointment when the Braves were quickly erased from the playoff bracket, going down in four games to their rival Philadelphia Phillies while inspiring discourse about lengthy layoffs and media ethics in the clubhouse.
But that was then and this is now. These Braves look as strong as most any team on paper following a winter that saw them add one of the best pitchers of their generation in Chris Sale. Can Sale and fellow newcomer Reynaldo López give the Braves' rotation a much-needed boost? And what even qualifies as a successful season anymore for a team this good? Below, we've provided answers on those questions and more as a means of previewing the 2024 Braves.
Win total projection, odds
- 2023 record: 104-58 (first in NL East)
- 2024 SportsLine win total over/under: 101.5 wins
Projected lineup
- RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
- 2B Ozzie Albies
- 3B Austin Riley
- 1B Matt Olson
- DH Marcell Ozuna
- CF Michael Harris II
- C Sean Murphy
- SS Orlando Arcia
- LF Jarred Kelenic
The Braves haven't had much reason to tweak their lineup in recent winters. That remained true this offseason, as they essentially swapped Eddie Rosario for Kelenic. The Braves did make a few notable additions to their bench, signing former Mets utility infielder Luis Guillormeand obtaining contact hitter David Fletcher from the Angels.
Projected rotation
- RHP Spencer Strider
- LHP Max Fried
- RHP Charlie Morton
- LHP Chris Sale
- RHP Reynaldo López
Atlanta's front office focused most of its energy on improving a rotation that ranked 17th last in ERA. We'll touch more on this further down the page, but the Braves acted quickly -- as they are wont to do -- to sign López, who is hoping to transition back to the rotation, and later traded Vaughn Grissom for Sale. Those moves appear to have bumped Bryce Elder, All-Star last season, among others onto the minor-league side of the depth chart.
Projected bullpen
- Setup: LHP A.J. Minter, RHP Joe Jiménez
- Middle: RHP Pierce Johnson, LHP Tyler Matzek, LHP Aaron Bummer
- Long: RHP Jackson Stephens
As for the bullpen, Atlanta's winter was mostly about retention. The Braves re-signed Johnson and Jiménez, and took a chance on Bummer rebounding after a rough season. It's worth pointing out that they'll also have Matzek, a key piece of their 2021 bullpen, back after he missed last year following Tommy John surgery.
Do they have enough pitching?
As mentioned above, the Braves' goal this winter was to reinforce a rotation that failed them last postseason thanks to ill-timed injuries to Fried and Morton. The Braves didn't take the conventional route in that pursuit, loading up on back-end starter workhorses (by modern standards, mind you) who felt "safe," even if they weren't the kind of pitcher you really wanted starting a playoff game. Instead, Alex Anthopoulos and crew took two big swings for upside -- albeit with plenty of downside.
We covered Sale in greater detail earlier this winter. There's legitimate reason to believe he remains an above-average starter. The question with him is whether or not he'll be able to stay on the mound for long enough to prove it. Sale has started 31 times since the start of the 2020 season, with 20 of those coming last year. He hasn't surpassed the 150-inning mark since 2018, and he last cleared 180 innings in 2017.
Players seldom grow healthier as they age, making it tough to predict how many starts Sale will make in any given season. The Braves seem optimistic that he'll be OK physically. They signaled as much by re-signing him to a new pact that guarantees his 2025 salary and adds a club option for the 2026 campaign. One presumes the Braves would not have taken such a step if they felt he was likely to break from a stiff breeze.
López's riskiness is twofold, as he needs to answer doubts about both his performance and his stamina. He hasn't been used as a full-time starter since 2020, leaving him to average just 63 innings over the last three years. Of course, he was moved to the bullpen in the first place because he wasn't getting the job done. He'll enter this season with a career 4.73 ERA as a starter, versus a career 3.01 mark as a reliever.
Is there reason to think this spin will go better for López as a starter? Sure. He has a fierce fastball-slider combination, with the former averaging a career-high 98 mph in 2023. The Braves are also just better at these things than the White Sox, and it wouldn't surprise us if they limit López's exposure by approaching his starts in a more strategic manner -- maybe capping him at two times through the order, as a way of both getting better results and preserving his arm for a starter's slate.
Even if you're a skeptic about Sale and López, the reality is that the Braves don't need to hit on both for this to work out. Between them, their three incumbent starters (Strider, Fried, Morton), and their various depth options, they really just need four healthy, viable arms come the postseason. If they can get that, they just might capture their second World Series title in four years.
Can lineup stay healthy again?
The Braves as a whole were not a particularly healthy bunch last season. They had the 11th most days missed due to injury among teams, according to Spotrac. Yet when you check out their lineup, you may have noticed some big numbers -- and we don't mean in the home-run column.
Let's lay it out in table form:
To wit, the Braves had three players clear 700 plate appearances last season, and another five topped the 500-PA threshold. No other team managed that. Heck, just five other clubs had as many as six players get so much playing time.
Player health is arguably the greatest unknown variable to public analysis. We cannot say, with any sense of confidence, that this or that player will remain healthy. What we can say is that extreme performances on the team level tend to regress. That doesn't mean the Braves are going to be without some of their best players for long stretches of time; it does likely mean, though, that their position player group won't be as locked in for the duration of the 2024 season.
And that's probably OK. The Braves have a loaded lineup and they should be fine barring a scenario where a few catastrophic injuries stack up on one another. All the same, it is something to keep in mind heading into the season.
What would make for a successful season?
In general, we think the concept of "World Series or bust" is overused -- while it's the ultimate goal, only one team can win it each fall; surely winning the pennant, or 100-something games during the regular season should still qualify as a success for most teams, even if it comes without a championship parade.
With that established, we think these Braves are in the rarified air where that's an acceptable expectation to place upon them. They have arguably the best roster in baseball outside of the Dodgers; they've won 100-plus games in each of the last two seasons; and they aren't far removed from their 2021 World Series title.
What else, pray tell, can this team do that will feel like a success shy of hanging another championship banner? To be in that predicament is a burden in a respect, but it's one the Braves should wear with pride: you have to have blazed a trail of excellence for us to even consider putting such lofty stakes on your season.
