2024 MLB odds, picks, predictions: Mets, Phillies are no match in NL East
After not losing any stars from their 104-win team, the Atlanta Braves are favored to win a seventh consecutive National League East title in 2024.
The Phillies have knocked them off in back-to-back playoffs, however, and should remain a notable thorn in their side.
Despite playing out of the same division, Atlanta and Philadelphia are priced by oddsmakers as the second and third favorites to win the NL pennant this year.
Part of the reason for their low prices is a lack of belief from oddsmakers and most projection systems in the upside of the rest of the division.
2024 NL East odds, projections
2024 NL East forecast
Atlanta Braves
The Braves are expected to run rampant over the rest of the NL East this season, with a betting total 11 wins greater than the Phillies.
They are also projected for 12 and 16 more wins by FanGraphs and PECOTA, respectively.
Their key offseason acquisitions came in the form of pitchers Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez and outfielder Jarred Kelenic.
Sale and Kelenic are both buy-low candidates with high upside, but even if they don’t pan out the Braves’ rotation and lineup will remain stacked.
It might not be fair to expect the Braves lineup to match last seasons historic 125 wRC+, but there’s no reason we should see a notable dropoff. FanGraphs projects Atlanta to average a laague-leading 5.35 runs per game, 0.23 runs greater than the Dodgers.
Here’s is the Braves’ projected lineup, with player’s Opening Day age in parentheses:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (26)
- Ozzie Albies (27)
- Austin Riley (27)
- Matt Olson (30)
- Marcell Ozuna (33)
- Michael Harris II (23)
- Sean Murphy (29)
- Jarred Kelenic (24)
- Orlando Arcia (29)
The Braves feature three of the top 11 betting favorites to win the NL MVP, including Acuna, who is the outright favorite at +550. They feature a roster stocked with guys in the heart of their true primes, that should combine to produce similar results to last season.
Spencer Strider and Max Fried headline a rotation which has a fairly wide range of outcomes but should remain a clear strength. We can expect those two in the NL Cy Young mix, but the cumulative results of Charlie Morton, Sale and either of Bryce Elder or Lopez are a little less predictable.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies also appear to be a legitimate World Series contender again despite a relatively subdued offseason.
They re-upped Aaron Nola to a seven-year, $172 million contract. He and Zack Wheeler will lead what should be a high-quality rotation, rounded out by Ranger Suarez, Christopher Sanchez and Taijuan Walker.
Led by Bryce Harper and Trea Turner, the Phillies will hold one of the more potent offenses in baseball and have not lost any crucial position players from their recent playoff runs.
They did lose Craig Kimbrel to free agency, but are still projected to a have a highly effective bullpen.
New York Mets
The Mets will hope to bounce back with a revamped starting rotation, but they are certainly in need of some things to break favorably to hold a staff that allows them to compete in the division.
Newcomers Sean Manaea, Adrian Houser and Luis Severino should join Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana to complete the rotation.
Severino pitched to an xFIP of 4.83 last season, and is clearly a bit of a project at this point in time. Manaea’s stuff doesn’t rate overly well, and seeing him overachieve his 4.44 ERA of last season is unlikely. Quintana owned an xERA of 4.58 last season at age 35, with significantly below-average velocity.
Senga should be a legitimate ace this season, although he will miss some time with a shoulder strain, but I don’t love the upside of the rest of the unit.
The lineup does look solid though, and could prove to be a quietly irritating unit for opposing pitchers, particularly if Francisco Alvarez can continue to display discipline at the plate, as we saw late last season.
The Mets are fairly priced with a betting total of 82.5 wins, and I view them as a slightly better side than the Marlins.
Keep in mind that if they are to remain loosely in the race around July, there is a strong possibility they make aggressive moves to get better, and that selling last year was an outlier for this management group.
Miami Marlins
Miami will look to follow up last year’s highly encouraging campaign, but will be forced to do so without Sandy Alcantara, who is out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Even without Alcantara, starting pitching is the clear strength of the Marlins roster. Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers and Eury Perez should makeup a strong starting rotation.
The questions for Miami will likely revolve around what kind of production they manage at the plate.
We should expect big things from Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Luis Arraez, but the rest of the group looks unconvincing after the loss of Jorge Soler.
Washington Nationals
Oddsmakers and projection models alike do not expect the Nationals to build upon their respectable finish to last season. Their betting total of 66.5 is five wins worse than they managed last year, and PECOTA and FanGraphs both still expect them to go under that total.
High-level prospects such as Dylan Crews, Cade Cavalli and Jackson Rutledge should provide some excitement for Nats fans at some point this season, but there is not much reasoning this team will be anything but a bottom-feeder.
NL East prediction
It should be tough sledding for the Mets, Marlins and Nationals in the division as the Braves and Phillies are well-positioned to build on last year’s excellent seasons.
I don’t hate a bet on the Phillies to win the World Series at +1500, but I consider betting the Braves at +550 as my favorite play right now given my belief we won’t see better numbers later.
It’s difficult to see any of the Braves’ elite players posting disappointing seasons, and therefore I love the chances they head into the postseason power-rated at No. 2 or even No. 1 by oddsmakers, barring extreme outcomes in terms of injury luck.
If that is the case, prices like +550 will be out the window.
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So despite the fact that the Braves have hit a wall in the postseason the last two years versus the Phillies, I actually believe backing them now to win the World Series is a good bet.
Atlanta is well-situated to solidify its staff prior to the deadline if need be, but having all of the elite pieces already there is what is most important.
I like the buy-low move with Kelenic, and the rest of the lineup is primed to build upon last year’s production.
