Braves vs Cubs Odds, Picks & Probable Pitchers (Aug. 4)
If you dig the long ball, you won’t want to miss the Friday afternoon tilt between the Braves (69-37, 32-17 away) and Cubs (55-53, 29-27 home). These are the two highest scoring teams in MLB since the All-Star break, and most of the damage done for both has come via home runs.
Chicago smacked five dingers in back-to-back games versus the Reds earlier this week, while no team in baseball has gone deep more in 2023 than Atlanta.
Online sportsbooks are giving the Braves preferential treatment in Friday’s MLB odds, in the first game of a three-game set at Wrigley Field, in Chicago.
Braves vs Cubs Odds
Atlanta is currently a -172 moneyline favorite, in a contest with a total of 8.5. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 pm ET, with clear skies and 79 degree temperatures in the forecast.
Odds as of August 3 at Caesars. Get a Caesars promo code to bet on ATL vs CHI on Friday.
Atlanta vs Chicago Starting Pitchers
The Braves enter play as the favorite in the World Series odds. Their lineup has a lot do with that, seeing how they lead the NL in runs, but their pitching staff is no slouch, especially at the top.
NL Cy Young odds favorite Spencer Strider headlines the group, but Max Fried will make his much anticipated return on Friday, after acting as the staff ace in 2022. Fried has been limited to only five starts in 2023 due to a forearm injury, and hasn’t pitched in the Majors since May 5th.
The lefty did make multiple starts at the minor league level last month in preparation for his return, with mixed results. He allowed 14 hits, five runs and two homers over 12 innings, never exceeding four innings in an outing. We shouldn’t expect more than a handful of innings Friday, despite an excellent track record vs the Cubs.
Fried is 4-0 lifetime against Chicago, with a 1.57 ERA in four starts. He last faced them in 2022, holding them to four hits and one run over 6 innings of work.
Fried vs Hendricks Stats
Kyle Hendricks, meanwhile, will counter for the Cubs. The right-hander has allowed three or fewer runs in three straight starts, but has an atrocious track record against Atlanta hitters.
The Braves regulars in the MLB starting lineups are slashing .368/.423/.672 lifetime against Hendricks, with eight home runs and 20 extra-base hits over 125 at-bats. Marcell Ozuna (3 HR, 11 RBI) and Travis d’Arnaud (2 HR, 6 RBI) have done the most damage versus Hendricks, but no matter where you look there isn’t a weak link in Atlanta’s lineup.
Braves vs Cubs Predictions
The Braves crossed the plate 12 times in their most recent victory over the Angels, giving them double-digit runs in three of their past six games. NL MVP odds favorite Ronald Acuna Jr, Austin Riley and Matt Olson went deep for Atlanta against LA, giving them 206 home runs through 106 games.
The MLB record is 307 set by the Twins back in 2019, and the Braves are currently on pace to hit 315 dingers by season’s end. Atlanta went deep seven times in their three game-set with the Angels, with the homers accounting for 11 of their 17 runs.
Over the last seven contests, the Braves have clubbed 19 homers, while averaging over seven runs per game. Olson has five dingers and a .409 average over that stretch, while Acuna Jr. has two homers, 10 runs and a .455 average in those outings.
As good as those numbers are, they actually pale in comparison to what Chicago is currently doing. The Cubs set a franchise record with 36 runs over a two-day stretch on Tuesday and Wednesday, and have scored 43 more runs than any other team since the All-Star Break.
Chicago became the first team in MLB history with 10 extra-base hits and five homers in back-to-back games, and has won 12 of 15 heading into play on Thursday.
Former Brave Dansby Swanson has three dingers in his past two contests, while Jeimer Candelario is 9-for-10, with six runs scored, since being acquired from the Nationals. Zooming out to more long term success, we see that Cody Bellinger is slashing .368/.405/.684 since the break, with seven home runs and 21 RBI.
