Phillies vs Braves Player Props, Picks & Odds for Game 2 (Oct. 9)

Odds as of Oct. 9 on the DraftKings Sportsbook app. Claim a DraftKings sign-up promo code to bet on the 2023 MLB playoffs. 

Philly’s Game 1 win shot them up the NL Pennant odds, where they are now +189 favorites. The Braves only fell to second at +227 thanks to the fact that the LA Dodgers also lost Game 1 of their NLDS with the Arizona Diamondbacks in the bottom-half of the MLB playoff bracket.

Philadelphia vs Atlanta Starting Pitchers

Philadelphia has the luxury of handing the ball to ace Zack Wheeler, who was excellent in Game 1 against the Marlins (6.2 IP, eight strikeouts, no walks, five hits, one run). Atlanta, meanwhile, sends Max Fried to the bump. Fried had an excellent regular season but hasn’t pitched since Sep. 21 due to a blister on his index finger.

Zack Wheeler vs Max Fried

Wheeler was instrumental in Philly’s run to the NL Pennant last season, leading the team with 35.2 IP while posting a 2.78 ERA and absurdly good 0.73 WHIP. He also has excellent numbers against the Atlanta lineup, which is slashing just .217/.256/.406 against the veteran righty in a massive sample size of 286 at-bats. Ten Atlanta hitters have faced Wheeler at least 11 times, and only one (Travis d’Arnaud) has an average over .275.

One encouraging stat for the Braves is that presumpting NL MVP Ronald Acuna, while hitting just .261 off Wheeler, has connected for power when getting his bat on the ball. Acuna has four home runs and four doubles off Wheeler in 46 at-bats.

The Phillies lineup has, on the whole, posted considerably better numbers against Fried (.299/.349/.495), again in a significant sample size of 194 at-bats. Both Nick Castellanos (8-for-13, one double, one homer) and Trea Turner (14-for-35, two doubles, one homer) have eaten up the 6’4 lefty, while JT Realmuto also has a .350 average including three dingers off Fried.

Now 29 years old, Fried has a decent amount of postseason experience, but his numbers are considerably worse in the playoffs compared to the regular season (4.43 playoff ERA versus 3.03 regular-season ERA). That includes a dismal performance against the Phillies last season, giving up eight hits and six runs (four earned) over just 3.1 innings in a 7-6 Game 1 loss.

Phillies vs Braves Player Props for Game 2

Monday’s MLB player props include three player who are shorter than +400 to hit a home run in Game 2 and, curiously, they are all on the Braves: Matt Olson is the shortest at +360, while Acuna and Ozuna are both +380. The shortest odds among Philly players belong to Kyle Schwarber (+425) and Trea Turner (+500).

The pitcher props mostly favor Wheeler having a longer and more-productive outing. His strikeout prop is one higher (5.5 versus 4.5) and his total outs recorded number is also one higher (15.5 versus 14.5).

Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Game 2

The odds here are skewed too heavily in Atlanta’s favor. The Phillies are not only blazingly hot, they have their best pitcher on the mound, a pitcher who has a long history of shutting down these Atlanta hitters. On the opposite side is a pitcher who was not only tagged by the Phillies in the playoffs last year, but who’s also been on the shelf for the past three weeks.

There is solid value on the Phillies’ moneyline at +130, and I also expect another deep outing from Wheeler, who needs one out in the sixth inning to hit the over on 15.5 outs.

• Phillies moneyline (+130)
• Wheeler over 15.5 outs recorded (-120)