Braves vs. Dodgers: Potential NLCS preview
There are just four MLB games taking place on Thursday. That’s an extremely rare quiet day across the circuit, and in a way, it’s fitting. As the calendar prepares to flip to September, teams have one final chance to catch their breath before the stress of a pennant race.
While there’s not a lot of quantity on the schedule, the quality of the matchup in Los Angeles makes up for it. At most sportsbooks, the Atlanta Braves are World Series favorites. The Los Angeles Dodgers have the second-best odds in most cases. No other teams in the National League are particularly close to them. On Thursday night, the two teams meet in what could very well be a preview of the NLCS.
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After a brutal start against the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 7th, it seemed like Spencer Strider was at risk of falling out of the race for National League Cy Young. His ERA was approaching 4.00, and that’s a non-starter, no matter how gaudy your strikeout numbers are. However, in three starts since then, Strider has gone 21 innings, giving up just one run and seven total hits over that span. He’s struck out 25 batters. His 2.37 ERA in August has him right in the thick of the Cy Young race. Only Blake Snell currently has better odds.
On the other side of the matchup, we take a look at the latest example of the Los Angeles Dodgers picking something out of the scrap heap and salvaging it. Lance Lynn was arguably the worst pitcher in baseball, posting a 6.47 ERA over 21 starts with the Chicago White Sox. The Dodgers took a flier at the trade deadline and he has certainly paid off for them. In five starts since coming over, Lynn has a 2.03 ERA. His last start was certainly his most worrisome in a Dodgers’ uniform, as he gave up 10 hits, two home runs and struck out just one batter over six innings while giving up four runs, three of which were earned.
In early August, Ronald Acuna Jr. was a -1000 favorite to win NL MVP. It was basically locked up. However, since then, Mookie Betts has made quite the push. Betts is hitting .452 in the month of August with an OPS of 1.316. Nope, that’s not a typo. The Dodgers have won 9 of 11 and 24 of their past 28 games. Betts has hits in 25 of his 27 August starts.
As a result, the MVP race has tightened according to the oddsmakers. Acuna is now a much more manageable favorite at -140. Betts is +100 to win the award. A big series by either player can shift the odds even more. They’ll also surely be popular prop bets all weekend.
Don’t forget about Freddie Freeman either. Freeman is 16-to-1 to win the award, making him a much longer shot, but this weekend’s series has three players who have had MVP-level seasons.
The Atlanta Braves are 20-5 in games started by Spencer Strider this season and there’s a reason he’s favored on the road against the mighty Dodgers. Lynn’s resurgence with Los Angeles has been impressive, but he faces a tall task with this Braves’ lineup. My trust in Strider is much higher than my trust in Lynn. It’s hard to just forget and ignore the first four months of the season.
Three MVP candidates take the field on Thursday, so let’s have some fun and root for this wild race to continue. All three players have at least one hit in over 70% of their games in the month of August. Maybe the sight of each other gets them to raise their games to another level, though I’m not sure that’s possible.
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