Brentford vs. Wolves pick: Premier League odds, prediction, best bets
Wolverhampton Wanderers scored a huge win over Chelsea in their last match, but they are far from out of the woods in the relegation battle.
Wolves will enter the upcoming matchweek in 13th-place, but their 31 points puts them just four points above the drop zone and they have a tough schedule to close the show.
A home win over Brentford on Saturday would go a long way in securing another Premier League season in the Black Country.
But if there’s one thing we’ve learned about Brentford in their first two Premier League campaigns it’s that they’re a feisty underdog and will give any team in any situation plenty to think about.
Wolverhampton vs. Brentford pick
(10 a.m. ET)
It’s been a tale of two seasons for Wolverhampton.
After limping into the World Cup in last place, Wolves have salvaged their season with a 6-3-6 (W-D-L) run since the league resumed on Boxing Day.
While that’s a fine record over a 15-game sample for a team battling relegation, a look under the hood will reveal some serious flaws for Julen Lopetegui’s side.
Wolverhampton has eked out a -2 goal difference since the World Cup, yet their xG differential in that span sits at -9.
The main difference in that disparity has come on the defensive side of the ball.
Wolves have allowed 18 goals in their last 15 contests, but their xG data suggests that number should be hovering around 24.
For a team that really struggles to consistently generate scoring chances, any negative regression would have a pretty big impact and Wolves are not a team built to win high-event matches.
Like Wolves, Brentford came out of the World Cup break in good form and was the last team in the Premier League to lose a match after returning to action.
But the mood around West London has changed a bit of late thanks to a 1-2-3 (W-D-L) stretch.
That said, Brentford’s schedule during its recent downtick has been pretty tough.
The Bees drew Brighton, 3-3, and then lost to Manchester United and Newcastle — two teams vying for a spot in the top four.
It’s not like Brentford has been played off the pitch during this rough patch.
In fact, the Bees could count themselves unlucky to not get something out of their 2-1 loss to Newcastle, as the xG ended 2.1 to 1.1 in favor of Brentford in that tilt.
Brentford is the better team in this match.
But because of both team’s recent form, the betting market is a little unconvinced of the Bees and too high on Wolves.
Brentford has value on Saturday morning.
