Who Will be Relegated from the Premier League?
Who will be relegated from the Premier League in 2022-23? Using the Opta Supercomputer’s predictions, we’re able to look at the chances of relegation for each team facing the drop from the top-flight. As the season evolves, we’ll track the progress of those sides in their battle to avoid relegation to the Championship.
2 May
Some of the best collections of people the world has ever seen have been made up of five.
The Power Rangers. Scooby Doo Mystery Inc. One Direction. The Spice Girls. The Simpsons Family. And of course, the Famous Five.
And now our supercomputer sees it being a five-way battle to avoid Premier League relegation after a weekend of action that didn’t see any of the troubled sides collect victories.
It means that Bournemouth and West Ham fans can now breathe a sigh of relief. Our model sees both sides safe from the drop, despite the Hammers falling to defeat in that pulsating game against Crystal Palace. The Cherries, meanwhile, looked to have delivered a hammer blow to Leeds United (58.1%), who remain our third favourites to go down, and the only side to see their chances of the drop heavily increase.
The 23 goals they conceded in the month of April is a new, rather unwanted, Premier League record for the Whites, the most in the top-flight in a month since Birmingham City conceded 23 in April 1965. No wonder it looks like they’ve pulled the ‘BIG SAM’ lever that every other club had avoided doing. But with just four tricky games to go and the Bielsa-shadow still looming large over the make-up of the squad, is it going to be enough?
Leeds United’s run-in: Manchester City (A), Newcastle (H), West Ham (A), Tottenham Hotspur (H).
Despite providing us with plenty of entertainment, perhaps a draw wasn’t the outcome that either Leicester City (27.7%) or Everton (68.6%) wanted from their encounter at the King Power Stadium. The Toffees remain our second favourites to head into the Championship next season. It wasn’t through lack of trying from Sean Dyche’s side though, attempting their highest total of shots in a Premier League match this season (23). But with no wins in their last seven (D4 L3) – the pressure is mounting.
Everton’s run-in: Brighton (A), Manchester City (H), Wolves (A), Bournemouth (H)
The Foxes have now dropped 24 points from leading positions in the Premier League this season, more than any other side, but it’s now three games without defeat for Dean Smith (W1 D2) after losing eight and drawing one of the nine before this. But how much might James Maddison’s penalty miss, his second in succession, come back to bite them come the end of May?
Leicester’s run-in: Fulham (A), Liverpool (H), Newcastle (A), West Ham (H)
Virtue of their terrible goal difference, it’s Nottingham Forest (46.6%) who fill the final spot in the relegation zone despite being tied on 30 points with both Leeds and Leicester. For quite a while against Brentford it looked like it would be a positive day for the club, but the Bees’ fifth 90th minute winner in their Premier League history, the most of any side since the start of the last season, once again caused heartache for the opposition.
Nottingham Forest run-in: Southampton (H), Chelsea (A), Arsenal (H), Crystal Palace (A).
One blessing for Forest is that they are the only side in this article who have still got to play a side below them in the table. And even better for their hopes of survival, certainly in the eyes of the supercomputer, is that they will face off against the seemingly hapless Southampton (98.3%) next Monday. The Saints are winless in their last nine league games (D3 L6) and, more worryingly, are winless in their last two games in the competition where they’ve scored first (D1 L1). And it really is now less of a case of if but when Southampton’s return to the Championship will be confirmed.
Southampton run-in: Nottingham Forest (A), Fulham (H), Brighton (A), Liverpool (H).
28 April
Three days have dramatically shifted the outlook at the bottom of the Premier League. For better and for worse.
Let’s start with the latter, as we are now pretty much set to wave goodbye to Southampton from the top flight come the end of the season. They had been favourites to see off Bournemouth at St. Mary’s on Thursday night, but an 11th home defeat in the Premier League, the most they have ever had in a single league campaign, has seen their chances of relegation climb to 97.7%, with an even more staggering 82.1% chance of finishing the season at the foot of the table. No team in England’s top four tiers have registered fewer than the four clean sheets the Saints have kept this season, equal with League One strugglers Forest Green Rovers.
Southampton’s run-in: Newcastle (A), Nottingham Forest (A), Fulham (H), Brighton (A), Liverpool (H)
For Bournemouth, this is the first time they’ve won three top-flight away games in succession and their reward? Just a 0.59% chance of going down. That 9-0 defeat against Liverpool seems a long way off now doesn’t it, Cherries fans?
Bournemouth’s run-in: Leeds United (H), Chelsea (H), Crystal Palace (A), Manchester United (H), Everton (A).
The big winners at the bottom following the midweek action were Nottingham Forest. An FA Cup semi-final hangover clearly affected Brighton as Forest ended a 12-match winless run in the competition with a 3-1 triumph at the City Ground. The supercomputer certainly hadn’t expected them to pick up the victory, so a healthy 32.9% swing in their favour has pulled them out of being one of our predicted sides for relegation. A look at their run-in shows there’s the chance to pick up some more points along the way, even if Brentford are the heavy favourites to take the victory on Saturday.
Nottingham Forest’s run-in: Brentford (A), Southampton (H), Chelsea (A), Arsenal (H), Crystal Palace (A)
Replacing them in our tips for the drop are Everton and Leeds United. Let’s begin with the Toffees who extended their winless run to six games in the competition following their heaviest home league defeat to Newcastle since Boxing Day 1933 when they lost by four goals in a top-flight encounter (3-7). Form has deserted Sean Dyche’s side at just the wrong time, keeping just two clean sheets in their last 10 league matches as they now have a 74% chance of being relegated come the end of the season, with a worrying 42% chance of finishing in 19th position. Their 69-season run as a top-flight club is in more jeopardy now than ever.
Everton’s run-in: Leicester City (A), Brighton (A), Manchester City (H), Wolves (A), Bournemouth (H).
Really, there’s not that much between Leeds (46.7%) and Nottingham Forest (46.3%) for the drop, but right now the Whites find themselves in the bottom three. Leeds have dropped 20 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, with only fellow strugglers Leicester (22) having dropped more. A look at their run-in and Sunday’s game against Bournemouth, for which they are the favourites to take the victory, feels extremely important for their survival hopes – how much would Javi Gracia love to have more of those dropped points on the board now?
Leeds United’s run-in: Bournemouth (A), Manchester City (A), Newcastle (H), West Ham (A), Tottenham Hotspur (H).
The hard facts right now show Leicester City in the relegation zone, a point behind Forest and Leeds. A leaky defence certainly hasn’t helped the Foxes’ cause this season, having conceded a goal in each of their last 18 league games. The only blessing is they are beginning to find the back of the net again, with Jamie Vardy’s equaliser against Leeds his first goal in 973 minutes in all competitions. The supercomputer still has them on the outside looking in with a 34.3% chance of being relegation, but a defeat on home soil to Everton on Monday night will see that change.
Leicester City’s run-in: Everton (H), Fulham (A), Liverpool (H), Newcastle (A), West Ham (H).
We have seen enough to mark another side safe from relegation. Now eight points clear from the relegation, our supercomputer believes Wolves will be a Premier League side again next season, meaning Julien Lopetegui should be able to enjoy his 200th top-flight match across spells in Portugal, Spain and England as a manager with a little less pressure on his shoulders. West Ham (0.5%) will join them if they can be victorious over Crystal Palace in the early kick-off on Saturday.
West Ham’s run-in: Crystal Palace (A), Manchester City (A), Manchester United (H), Brentford (A), Leeds United (H), Leicester City (A).
24 April
Oh, how different this update could have been if Southampton had held on for the win against Arsenal.
It certainly was a spirited showing from the Saints at the Emirates, but spirits don’t get you anywhere as two points slipped away, although you could also argue with the way the hosts had built momentum by the end, it was a point saved. Still though, a 91.5% chance of going down with 56.5% chance of finishing bottom of the table according to the Opta supercomputer, Southampton simply must get something from the ‘they used to be in Hampshire but now they aren’t’ derby against Bournemouth on Thursday.
Southampton’s run-in: Bournemouth (H), Newcastle (A), Nottingham Forest (A), Fulham (H), Brighton (A), Liverpool (H)
Looking set to the join them in the Championship next season are Nottingham Forest. Again, another spirited performance from a relegation threatened side as they twice came from behind against Liverpool but couldn’t do anything about Mohamed Salah’s winner. The good news for Steve Cooper’s side, it’s the first time they’ve scored twice in a Premier League away game since their return to the top-flight. The bad news, their chances of relegation increased to 79.2%, with a league-best 30% chance of finishing in 19%. Brighton await on Wednesday.
Nottingham Forest’s run-in: Brighton (H), Brentford (A), Southampton (H), Chelsea (A), Arsenal (H), Crystal Palace (A)
A draw against Crystal Palace might have been a point secured for Everton, but the Toffees are now winless in their last five Premier League games and last 12 away from home (D4 L8). A first clean sheet away from Goodison Park since October might have warmed Sean Dyche’s heart a little bit, but his side are still our favourites (55.8%) to join Southampton and Forest in the drop-zone come the end of the season, although they do have a couple of fixtures they’ll be circling as proverbial ‘six-pointers’ in the coming weeks.
Everton’s run-in: Newcastle (H), Leicester City (A), Brighton (A), Manchester City (H), Wolves (A), Bournemouth (H).
We’ve mentioned before in this piece that getting on a run of form at this time of the season is key, so Leeds United losing three out of their last three is certainly less than ideal. They’ve only got to make one more trip to the capital this season which is probably a blessing as Leeds have lost 14 of their 18 away games against London sides (W3 D1) since returning to the Premier League in 2020. They might be safe for now (37.7%), but their chances of relegation have increased over the past few weeks with the crunchiest of crunch clashes awaiting on Tuesday.
Leeds United’s run-in: Leicester City (H), Bournemouth (A), Manchester City (A), Newcastle (H), West Ham (A), Tottenham Hotspur (H).
All eyes will certainly be on Elland Road for their clash with Leicester City, especially after the Foxes put an end to their nine-game winless run in the Premier League (D1 L8) with victory against Wolves at the weekend and lifting themselves out of the relegation zone in the progress. A huge swing in their relegation chances (30.6%) also followed but they’ll need to build upon that momentum against struggling Leeds or that victory really could have been a moot point.
Leicester City’s run-in: Leeds United (A), Everton (H), Fulham (A), Liverpool (H), Newcastle (A), West Ham (H).
Technically, our supercomputer does still give Bournemouth (4.1%), Wolves (0.7%) and West Ham (0.1%) a chance of being relegated. So, whilst we can’t absolutely mark them ‘safe’ from the drop yet, it does look extremely likely that all three sides will enjoy top-flight football next season.
Bournemouth’s run-in: Southampton (A), Leeds United (H), Chelsea (H), Crystal Palace (A), Manchester United (H), Everton (A).
Wolves’ run-in: Crystal Palace (H), Brighton (A), Aston Villa (H), Manchester United (A), Everton (H), Arsenal (A).
West Ham’s run-in: Liverpool (H), Crystal Palace (A), Manchester City (A), Manchester United (H), Brentford (A), Leeds United (H), Leicester City (A).
18 April
And then, there were eight.
Crystal Palace became the latest club to be marked ‘safe’ from relegation from the Premier League, according to the Opta supercomputer, following their 2-0 victory over Southampton. Three wins on the bounce for Roy Hodgson since taking back over at Selhurst Park has saved the Eagles from the drop – the nine goals since Hodgson’s reappointment as many as they had netted in their previous 16 league games between November 2022 and March 2023.
For the Saints, the dreaded drop well and truly looms now with a 93.6% chance of returning to the Championship following their tenth home defeat in the Premier League this season, equalling their most losses on home soil in a single campaign in the competition (also 10 in 1993-94 and 2019-20).
But who will be joining them? Whereas Palace have enjoyed their new manager bounce at just the right time – did Everton make their move a little too early? They won their two of their first three Premier League matches under Sean Dyche but have since managed just one victory in their last eight games (D3 L4). It’s the sort of trend that gets our supercomputer, especially after seeing its pick of them beating Fulham going down the drain, twitchy with it now making the Toffees third favourites for the drop (57.8%).
No surprises that Nottingham Forest (74.4%) are the other favoured side to go down. Winless (D3 L7) and without a clean in their last 10 Premier League games, they also hold a rather horrible record of being winless in all 24 league games in which they’ve conceded this season (D8 L16). The latest defeat coming against Manchester United, and it doesn’t look much prettier over their next three games against Liverpool, Brighton and Brentford before a potential crunch clash against Southampton. Will it be too late by then?
Remarkably despite their defeat against Manchester City, Leicester (46.4%) actually saw their chances of survival increase by 4.5% thanks to that Everton defeat. The Foxes weren’t expected to get anything at the Etihad as they made it eight defeats in their last nine (D1), but that will need to change over the next week with three crunch clashes against Wolverhampton Wanderers (H), Leeds United (A) and Everton (H). I’ve had a little peek at this weekend’s predictions – they are the favourites to beat Wolves on Saturday. Failure to do so and expect their relegation chances to increase dramatically.
A night to forget for Leeds United last night, but it didn’t affect their relegation chances too much (23.5%). Are the four sides below them in that much more trouble? Probably. But with 16 goals conceded in their four games so far this April, one more than they shipped in January, February AND March combined, sorting out their defensive frailties will be key.
We are very close to marking more sides safe from the drop as well with West Ham (2.1%), Bournemouth (1.6%) and Wolves (0.5%) not needing to look over their shoulders too much. It has been a particularly impressive month from the Cherries, who back on 20th March had a 55.9% chance of going down and were our second favourites to be relegated. But winning five of your last nine top-flight matches (L4) is going to change your fortunes, especially when it’s as many as they had won in their previous 25 in the competition. They face the Hammers on Sunday, the winner of which we’ll expect to make safe next time.
How Does the Supercomputer Model Work?
• Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances.
• The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta’s team rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.
• The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.
