Brighton vs. Newcastle pick: Premier League odds, predictions

There is plenty at stake in the lone English Premier League match on Thursday afternoon.

Brighton and Newcastle — two of the season’s biggest overachievers — both have aspirations to qualify for European football and a midweek win would go a long way in helping them secure that goal.

Brighton have been in terrific form down the stretch — it has the second-best expected goal difference in the Premier League since March 1 — but it has had some interesting results in the last five contests.

The Seagulls have defeated Arsenal, Manchester United and Wolverhampton, but they’ve lost as big favorites to Everton and Nottingham Forest.

Brighton vs. Newcastle pick

(2:30 p.m. Eastern)

Those results show the nature of this Brighton side.

The Seagulls are one of the best underdogs in the Premier League, but a leaky defense means you should tread carefully when they’re a favorite.

Newcastle also has been enjoying a great run of form since a three-match losing streak in the beginning of March, but the Magpies’ defense has started to show some cracks.

Newcastle has not kept a clean sheet in eight matches and just conceded 2.1 expected goals to relegation-threatened Leeds United. 

Brighton’s attack — paced by Alexis Mac Allister’s 10 goals — ranks second in non-penalty expected goals created, first in shots per 90 minutes and fourth in big scoring chances created this season and is averaging 2.3 goals per game over the last 12 contests.

Newcastle’s defensive play has been stellar all season, but Brighton’s elite offense is still underrated and gives the Seagulls a solid chance of upsetting these odds on the road.