Brock Purdy Odds & Props

Brock Purdy has been an incredible story over the last couple of seasons and now he'll look to beat up on the Baltimore Ravens. Purdy has shown excellent accuracy this season and our NFL picks expect him to keep things clean on Monday.

Roger Goodell has blessed us all with a Christmas present tonight as the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers meet in San Francisco on Christmas Day to close out the Week 16 odds.

Central to this MNF odds meeting between two 11-3 teams will be the quarterbacks — Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy — the top two contenders for this season’s NFL MVP prize. I'm going to shine a spotlight on Brock Purdy's odds and find the best way to bet on him for this huge game.

Brock Purdy MNF prop picks

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Brock Purdy MNF prop pick

Under 0.5 interceptions (-125)

This is set to be a monster game as the NFL’s two 11-3 teams meet at the Levi’s Stadium. There are so many ways to bet on this game, but here we’re going to look at Brock Purdy specifically against what is one of the league’s best defenses.

The Baltimore Ravens defense is ranked second in defensive DVOA, has allowed just 16.1 points per game, and allows an average of 287.9 scrimmage yards per game. This is a top-tier defense, however, when it comes to interceptions it only has 11. That’s important context here when my best bet is for Brock Purdy to have Under 0.5 interceptions.

Only the Texans have thrown fewer picks than Purdy this year, who has a total of seven. Now let’s take a deep dive into those INTs. Purdy didn’t throw a pick until Week 6 when they faced the great Browns’ defense. Then in Week 7 and 8, he threw four of his seven total interceptions.

We know Purdy picked up a concussion in that first game against the Vikings with him going into the protocol until after the game. A protocol he cleared to face the Bengals a week later in which he threw another two picks. It’s very hard to prove the concussion impacted him in those two games — especially when we don’t know for certain when it occurred — but I think it’s a fair assumption to assume that over 50% of his season total of picks being in two games might be related to that head injury.

A week of recovery followed in Week 9 and in the six following games we’ve seen just two throws picked. In that time his QB rating has dropped below 120 just once and he’s thrown a total of 17 TD passes.

Purdy has demonstrated tremendous accuracy all season with the offense putting him in a position to succeed. He doesn’t turn over the ball often and the Ravens haven’t shown they’re great at forcing interceptions. With all of that in mind, I have to play the Under here at -125. 

Prop: Under 0.5 interceptions (-125 at bet365)

Brock Purdy MNF same-game parlay

Brock Purdy Under 0.5 interceptions

Deebo Samuel Over 59.5 receiving yards

Samuel anytime touchdown

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Deebo Samuel has been playing lights out since returning from injury after the bye and has covered this 59.5-yard total in four of his past five games. This Ravens’ defense is great, but in recent weeks we’ve seen Jamal Agnew put up 70 yards, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua put up 115 and 84 yards respectively as well, and Keenan Allen get 106 yards.

As well as backing Deebo to hit the Over on 59.5 receiving yards, I'll back him to score a touchdown. He’s scored eight TDs in his past four games, showing the sort of form that has probably led people to fantasy football championships. He’s only failed to score in one game since returning at the bye and I think he stands a great chance of finding the endzone again here.

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