Brooklyn Nets vs. Miami Heat Odds, Betting Lines, Expert picks, Game Projections and DFS Projections
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
BKN @ MIA
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
BKN @ MIA
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
Point SpreadMiami -6.5 -108
6-3 in Last 9 NBA Picks
4-2 in Last 6 MIA Picks
Kenny's Analysis:
The Brooklyn Nets will be without Cameron Johnson, Nicolas Claxton, and Spencer Dinwiddie. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have been upgraded to probable for the 1-3 Miami Heat. My model has the Heat by 15. That big of a difference is worth 1.5 units.
Pick Made:Wed 8:56 pm UTC
PropTyler Herro OVER 23.5 Total Points -125
16-10 in Last 26 NBA Picks
7-3 in Last 10 NBA Props Picks
Mike's Analysis:
The Heat waited most of the offseason to see if they could acquire Damian Lillard in a trade with the Trail Blazers. Since the process took so long to play out, they were left with few options to improve their roster after the deal never came to fruition. That means Tyler Herro will need to shoulder a significant amount of the scoring burden. He has obliged, averaging 25.3 points on 22.0 shot attempts per game. The Nets have given up 120.0 points per game, which should also help Herro’s case to reach the over.
Pick Made:Wed 5:17 pm UTC
PropCameron Thomas OVER 24.5 Total Points -127
16-10 in Last 26 NBA Picks
7-3 in Last 10 NBA Props Picks
Mike's Analysis:
The Nets are going to be shorthanded for this game. Cameron Johnson (calf), Nic Claxton (ankle) and Spencer Dinwiddie (ankle) are all out, while Dennis Smith Jr. (hip) is questionable. Fewer players available means more opportunities for Thomas. He is never one to shy away from jacking up shots, so the Nets having injury issues has left him with a 32.2 percent usage rate this season. That has resulted in him scoring at least 30 points in all three games. We only need 25 here to hit the over, so I can’t resist.
Pick Made:Wed 5:14 pm UTC
34-13 in Last 47 NBA ML Picks
58-38-1 in Last 97 NBA Picks
30-15 in Last 45 MIA ML Picks
11-5 in Last 16 MIA Picks
Matt's Analysis:
There's always a risk the Heat could rule out some key guys tomorrow but the Nets apparently will be without Spencer Dinwiddie and backup guard Dennis Smith Jr. on top of previously ruled out Cam Johnson and Nic Claxton on Wednesday. Miami has lost three straight and played without Bam Adebayo on Monday, but those were all away and Bam should return Wednesday. Half unit.
Pick Made:Tue 9:07 pm UTC
Brooklyn Nets
Thursday, Nov 02, 2023
Monday, Oct 30, 2023
SF
Miami Heat
Thursday, Nov 02, 2023
SF
SF
As Underdog or PK
STATUS
As Favorite
When Spread was +5 to +8
SPREAD
When Spread was -8 to -5
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
vs Teams That Win 45-55% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win 45-55% of Games
vs Teams Allowing >102 PPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >102 PPG
After a Day Off
REST
After a Day Off
The Simulation uses parameters such as each team's statistics, expected lineups and defense-adjusted performance metrics to simulate every game 10,000 times and generate projections for the matchup. Those projections are then compared to the betting lines to create pick grades based on confidence, with "A" picks representing the biggest edge.
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