Brooklyn Nets vs. Miami Heat Odds, Betting Lines, Expert picks, Game Projections, DFS Projections and Player Prop Projections
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BKN @ MIA
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
BKN @ MIA
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
46-21 in Last 67 NBA ML Picks
80-59-1 in Last 140 NBA Picks
33-15 in Last 48 MIA ML Picks
14-5 in Last 19 MIA Picks
Matt's Analysis:
Yeah, let's throw a small play down. The Heat have been a different team, mainly on defense, since Haywood Highsmith entered the starting lineup and are unbeaten since then. And they also get Caleb Martin, one of the 2023 playoff stars, back for the first time since the opener. Brooklyn is playing solid ball but really hasn't beaten a good team yet -- other than Miami with a crazy rally on Nov. 1. That was back when the Heat were in a major post-Finals funk.
Pick Made:12:06 am UTC
PropDay'Ron Sharpe OVER 5.5 Total Rebounds -143
13-8 in Last 21 NBA Picks
9-4 in Last 13 NBA Props Picks
Erik's Analysis:
Sharpe has astounding reb per minute numbers. And with Nik Claxton shadowing Bam, there should be enough minutes for Sharpe. I project 7.2 rebounds so I see value.
Pick Made:Thu 11:26 pm UTC
PropMikal Bridges UNDER 27.5 Total Points + Rebounds -104
13-8 in Last 21 NBA Picks
9-4 in Last 13 NBA Props Picks
Erik's Analysis:
Bridges isn’t quite the scorer he was at the end of last year, and the line has not adjusted accordingly. Plus he doesn’t really rebound. Value here.
Pick Made:Thu 11:21 pm UTC
PropCameron Johnson OVER 4.5 Total Rebounds -137
17-11 in Last 28 NBA Picks
4-2 in Last 6 NBA Props Picks
Larry's Analysis:
Cam Johnson dealt with a hamstring injury in the preseason, then suffered a calf contusion in the same leg in the regular-season opener. He missed seven games, but has been back for three. In all four of the games he's played, the 6-foot-8 Johnson has grabbed 5-plus rebounds. He played 29 minutes in Tuesday's 20-point win over the Magic, but played 35 minutes in Sunday's eight-point win over Washington. This should be a tight game throughout, so the Nets should use Johnson for at least 30 minutes.
Pick Made:Thu 6:29 pm UTC
Point SpreadBrooklyn +3.5 -108
10-4 in Last 14 NBA ATS Picks
17-11 in Last 28 NBA Picks
13-8 in Last 21 BKN ATS Picks
8-4 in Last 12 BKN Picks
Larry's Analysis:
The Nets won all three meetings with Miami last season, and Brooklyn continued that streak with a 109-105 victory in Miami on Nov. 1. The Heat haven't lost since, but I like the Nets to at least keep it close Thursday. Brooklyn lives and dies with the 3-pointer; Miami ranks third-worst in 3-point percentage allowed (38.6). While Brooklyn remains without Cam Thomas and Ben Simmons, the return of Nic Claxton has benefitted the Nets' defense. They allowed an average of 99 points in wins over the Wizards and Magic this week. Back Brooklyn to improve to 10-1-1 ATS.
Pick Made:Thu 4:45 pm UTC
PropMikal Bridges UNDER 28.5 Total Points + Rebounds -123
59-34 in Last 93 NBA Picks
58-33 in Last 91 NBA Props Picks
Alex's Analysis:
Mikal Bridges was acquired by the Brooklyn Nets before the trade deadline last year in a blockbuster move that sent Kevin Durant to the Phoenix Suns. Prior to landing in Brooklyn, Bridges was primarily known for his elite defense was known an elite 3&D player. However Bridges proved to be a quality scorer and posted 26 PPG as a member of the Nets over the final 27 games of the 22-23 season. This season Bridges is scoring 20.3 PPG and I believe his current averages more accurately reflect his role/usage. Considering he has never pulled down more than 5.0 RPG this is a lofty number against a tough defensive squad (11th in Def Efficiency) that plays at the 4th slowest pace in then league.
Pick Made:Thu 9:05 am UTC
Brooklyn Nets
Tuesday, Nov 14, 2023
PG
Thursday, Nov 09, 2023
SG
Miami Heat
Thursday, Nov 16, 2023
PG
Monday, Nov 13, 2023
PG
The Simulation uses parameters such as each team's statistics, expected lineups and defense-adjusted performance metrics to simulate every game 10,000 times and generate projections for the matchup. Those projections are then compared to the betting lines to create pick grades based on confidence, with "A" picks representing the biggest edge.
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