Bundesliga Odds, Free Picks & Betting Tips

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19 May 2023

Bundesliga Odds, Free Picks & Betting Tips

The top of the Bundesliga table has become a blood bath with Bayern holding on for dear life. They can't afford to concede three points, but Christopher Nkunku will make sure the Bavarians won't walk away unscathed.

There are just two games left in the Bundesliga and things couldn’t be tighter at the top as we head into Saturday’s Bayern Munich vs. RB Leipzig clash. Bayern Munich hold a narrow one-point lead over Dortmund who play on Sunday, and it’s essential that Bayern Munich don’t hand them the advantage.

Standing in their way on Saturday is RB Leipzig, currently third in the Bundesliga and coming into this in great form, winning seven of their past eight in all competitions. And one player on RB that Bayern will have to look out for is Christopher Nkunku.

Saturday’s game could have real implications on who wins the Bundesliga, so don’t miss our Bayern Munich vs. RB Leipzig betting picks and predictions.

RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich best odds

RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich picks and predictions

I’m not brave enough to call a winner here, especially with Bayern Munich being -200 favorites, but my best bet isn’t great news for the Bavarians. I’m backing RB Leipzig’s French star Christopher Nkunku to either score or assist at a great price of +105.

The Frenchman missed their last meeting in January — dealing with the same injury that robbed him of playing at the World Cup in Qatar — but when these two teams met last July in the German Super Cup he scored... and he has the potential to replicate that again.

The 25-year-old is one of the hottest properties in Europe and is rumored to be moving to Chelsea in the summer. This season he’s played 32 times for RB Leipzig, scoring 19 and assisting four goals. In the Bundesliga, he’s played 23 times, with 18 of those from the start. In that time he’s scored 13 and had three assists.

Unfortunately for RB Leipzig, the majority of those goals were before his injury in November. Since his return he’s played 10 times in all competitions, scoring just twice and assisting three goals. It was clear on his return that he wasn’t match fit, looking off the pace and not showing the instinctiveness that we’d seen in 2022.

That’s changed in the past few weeks and he looks like he’s finally found his feet, getting back to the player we knew before the injury. In his past four games, he’s scored twice and assisted two goals, has been man of the match in two of those games, and has been playing at a very high level.

That’s something that’ll concern Bayern Munich. Nkunku is best when he’s slightly deeper behind the front man and can then get on the ball, run at opponents and bring others into play. With Bayern Munich having doubts over goalkeeper Yann Sommer (illness) and Dayot Upamecano (muscle tear) their defense could be in trouble. He’ll look to exploit the space between the back four and midfield.

At +105 you’re not getting a huge price, but given his recent form and the health issues in the Bayern Munich team, it feels like a game in which Christopher Nkunku can really thrive.

My best bet: Christopher Nkunku to score or assist (+105 at FanDuel)

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RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich side analysis

Bayern Munich are -200 favorites and really should win this game, but they’re still not as constituent as we’ve seen in previous years. I’d be worried about putting my hard-earned money on them at those odds, especially against an RB Leipzig team who can trouble anybody on their day.

As mentioned, there are injury doubts around a number of Bayern’s players. Yann Sommer has been ill with a stomach bug this week but should be fit enough to play in goal. However, Alphonso Davies, Eric Choupo-Moting, Josip Stanisic, and Upamecano are doubts.

That should mean a back four of Joao Cancelo, Noussair Mazraoui, Benjamin Pavard, and Matthijs de Ligt, a good back four but not one you can truly trust. The midfield two of Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretzka are fantastic and provide the platform on which Jamal Musiala, Leroy Sane, and Kingsley Coman can play. Up front, I’m expecting Serge Gnabry as a false nine but we could potentially see Thomas Muller there — or deeper in place of Musiala.

RB Leipzig will play a similar 4-2-3-1 formation. Josko Gvardiol should be fit which is good news for their defense, and he’ll be integral in that back four alongside Willi Orban. In midfield, we’ll probably see Konrad Laimer who looks likely to join Bayern Munich in the summer. The attack is key here and we’ll likely see Timo Werner down the middle, with Christopher Nkunku behind him. Out wide will be Dani Olmo and Dominik Szoboszlai, who can trouble Bayern’s fullbacks.

RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich Over/Under analysis

When it comes to total goals it’s clear that Over 2.5 goals is most likely, but at a best price of -250 with the sportsbooks, it’s a market that I’ll look to avoid.

The total of 3.5 at +101 would be the safer play if you're expecting plenty of goals, with the Under returning at about -110 if you prefer to play that side.

Going back to the line of 2.5, the stats do back up the Over. Bayern Munich have had Over 2.5 goals in 65.6% of their games this season. With RB Leipzig they’ve had Over 2.5 goals in 56.3% of their Bundesliga games this campaign, although that drops to 50% when they’re on the road.

RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich game info

RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich key injuries

RB Leipzig: Lucas Hernandez LB (Out), Manuel Neuer GK (Out), Yann Sommer GK (Questionable), Josip Stanisic RB (Questionable), Alphonso Davies LB (Questionable), Dayot Upamecano CB (Questionable), Eric Choupo-Moting ST (Questionable).
Bayern Munich: Peter Gulacsi GK (Out), Josko Gvardiol CB (Questionable), Konrad Laimer CM (Questionable), Dani Olmo FWR (Questionable).