Bundesliga tips, best bets, predictions and previews: Matchday 16 picks

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22 January 2023

Bundesliga tips, best bets, predictions and previews: Matchday 16 picks

Football betting tips: Bundesliga

1.5pts Borussia Mönchengladbach most corners v Bayer Leverkusen at 5/4 (Sky Bet)

1pt Andre Silva to score anytime in RB Leipzig v Bayern Munich at 11/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

1pt Florian Kainz to score anytime in Köln v Werder Bremen at 4/1 (bet365)

Borussia Mönchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen

TV: Sky Sports Football
16:30 GMT, Sunday

Xabi Alonso will have welcomed the extended period of time he's had to work with this Leverkusen side - they endured mixed results in the month they had before the World Cup break.

Four wins came from ten competitive outings and they would have been slightly unhappy with the timing of the pause given their form in the weeks leading up to it.

They had three wins in a row, scoring nine goals and conceding just once.

While Mönchengladbach saw victory over Dortmund in their final game, the three losses from four prior to it sees them likely to have taken a different attitude to the temporary pause coming when it did.

That mixed form, combined with two months off, makes it difficult to really get involved with the outright market here and the odds on offer - which make Leverkusen favourites - further highlight that.

Instead, I'm willing to delve into an area where neither has been particularly prolific and that is corners.

With Leverkusen favourites, they're expected to 'win' this count but there is a small amount of appeal in taking MÖNCHENGLADBACH MOST CORNERS at a price of 5/4 with Sky Bet.

In Leverkusen's seven league games under Alonso's guidance, they've won the corner count just once - that being the final game before the break which was at home to Stuttgart.

Mönchengladbach have hardly been flying in this count but they've at least posted more than the opposition in two of their last seven - taking more corners on average than Leverkusen across that period.

Across the last seven Bundesliga games, Leverkusen have been averaging just 2.29 corners taken, while Mönchengladbach have seen 4.29.

Game state does come into play, but so does the way individual teams line up and there has been a clear change for Leverkusen - who were averaging 5.13 corners taken per game in the eight before Alonso's arrival.

The most they've taken in a league game under Alonso is four - they had achieved that five times from eight prior to that managerial switch.

Köln v Werder Bremen

TV: Sky Sports Football
17:30 GMT, Saturday

An intriguing contest in Saturday's late kick-off. Köln sit below Werder Bremen but it could have been a different story based on missed opportunities in the first-half of the season.

Bremen's defence has been a cause for concern, although they do have the benefit of an attack that could bail them out when required.

It's hardly a surprise to see over 2.5 goals sitting around the 8/13 mark when we consider the attack v defence balance in this contest - where the home side should fancy victory.

The 5/4 general price on Köln securing three points is an interesting one, but my attention was immediately caught by the 4/1 available on FLORIAN KAINZ TO SCORE ANYTIME.

The winger's first part of the campaign delivered five goals and four assists in 14 league outings. That came from 30 shots and 4.09 xG - the chances created were matching the actual goals tally returned.

Unsurprisingly, virtually all of his opportunities came from that left side of the pitch, and he should get a few shots away given Mitchell Weiser's desire to attack in the back-three system we've seen throughout from Bremen throughout the season.

If you're after a results-based bet, I'd be happy to side with Köln in front of their own supporters. Instead, the price on a KAINZ goal is a tad too generous given the contest and opposition defence.

RB Leipzig v Bayern Munich

TV: Sky Sports Mix
19:30 GMT, Friday

The Bundesliga is BACK with a huge game to get us going again in Germany's top-flight.

Leipzig host Bayern for the second time this season, with both teams playing out a 5-3 thriller in the Super Cup at the beginning of the campaign.

A winter break isn't unusual in the Bundesliga but the World Cup coming before it means that we've been without action for over two months. That's a huge period without competitive football for the clubs.

Of course, top players will have been involved with the tournament in Qatar but the general advice would be to remember the extended period when looking at the markets this weekend - team form is pretty much irrelevant now.

One of the main talking points surrounding this game is who will feature in the Bayern net. Manuel Neuer is sidelined through injury, and Yann Sommer is heading south to become their starter.

There are suggestions that he will be involved from the off on Friday night, and that's a huge boost for a club hoping for yet more domestic success alongside the Champions League.

It should still be a high-scoring, entertaining contest though, and that's why we're taking the 11/4 on ANDRE SILVA TO SCORE ANYTIME.

Leipzig were a strong force at home under Marco Rose prior to the break. They won all five league games in front of their own supporters - creating an average of 2.62 xG in each.

Silva was a player who benefitted from the managerial switch. Five goals have come in 15 Bundesliga and Champions League matches since then - he's been seeing good quality chances throughout.

The striker was averaging 0.49 xG/95 in those games, a total of 31 shots leading to his decent enough return.

The lack of Christopher Nkunku due to injury gives hope to Silva seeing a decent amount of time on the pitch. It'll also be between the forward and Emil Forsberg for penalty duties.

With plenty of goals fancied - the Infogol model rates it a 52% chance that we see four or more - taking Leipzig's starting striker at a hefty price looks to be the best value play.

Bundesliga: Weekend best bets

1.5pts Borussia Mönchengladbach most corners v Bayer Leverkusen at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Andre Silva to score anytime in RB Leipzig v Bayern Munich at 11/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Florian Kainz to score anytime in Köln v Werder Bremen at 4/1 (bet365)

Odds correct at 1535 GMT (19/01/23)

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