Buy or Sell: Rays to Win... Anything?

The Tampa Bay Rays were hot out of the gate to kick off the MLB season, winning the first 13 games in a row, but since starting 30-9, they’re 30-31. They’ve lost their hold on first place in the AL East and the American League, and people still aren’t acknowledging their recent mediocre play.

Are the Rays still contenders to win it all, let alone their division?

The AL East has been the most competitive division in baseball this year. All five teams sport winning records and look to be potential buyers at the trade deadline, with several fighting to clinch a wild card spot. The Rays have lost 12 of their last 15 games, most recently a loss at home to the Baltimore Orioles, who have surpassed them in the division. Despite this, the bookmakers still look favorably on the Rays’ chances to reclaim the division, sitting at -185.

I don’t see it. Baltimore is playing elite baseball. They’ve exceeded all expectations and look to be buyers at the deadline to shore up a few holes with proven veteran talent. Since June 1, the O’s have gone 24-16, whereas the Rays have gone 20-22. Is there anything to tell us that the O’s will fall off? Absolutely not. Maybe the Rays deserve to be favored, but at -185? No way. There is no value there.

Verdict: Sell

Like their divisional odds, the Rays are considerable favorites to win the American League at +210, followed by the Rangers and Astros at +360 and +440, respectively. If I’m not betting on the Rays to win their division, I’m certainly not betting on them to make the World Series. The books are still overvaluing the Rays and not considering them for what they are. Right now, they are a bad team, and since the middle of May, they’ve been a mediocre .500 ball club. The Rangers have one of the most well-rounded lineups in baseball, along with starting rotation with three arms that have been elite this year. They, combined with the championship pedigree of the Astros, are very formidable opponents and don’t deserve to be priced noticeably different. The value isn’t there at 2-1 odds unless the Rays have an aggressive trade deadline to bolster their roster.

Verdict: Sell

It may be foolish to value the Rays better in the World Series market than in their division or league, but I do. Currently sitting at +550 to win it all, the Rays are third behind the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers, assuming that the winner of the National League goes on to win it all. I need to see the Dodgers add pitching depth, and I don’t value Atlanta as highly as the public. The Braves are a fair play, given their price, but I think this is the type of year where anyone can win it all.

Verdict: Buy… Because of an NL fade

It remains to be seen what the rest of the Rays’ season will look like, and much will be determined by how the rest of the AL contenders address the looming trade deadline. Still, the Rays need to realize they aren’t as untouchable as many thought for most of this season.

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