Buying or Selling MLB Betting Odds Favorites to Win Their Divisions in 2023
With the All-Star game now behind us, it's time to look forward to the back end of this MLB season. The trade deadline is still just under three weeks away, so teams are not yet fully formed.
Still, we have a decent sense for what the postseason landscape is. Most of the division races, like those in the AL East and each Central and West division, should be tight. One specific division race does not look like a race at all.
Here, we take a look at the current betting odds for each team to win its division. For each division, we've offered a case for a winner, by buying or selling the current odds.
Of course, all of this could change at the deadline, but here is where things stand for now.
Current Odds
Tampa Bay Rays (-210)
Baltimore Orioles (+400)
Toronto Blue Jays (+750)
New York Yankees (+1000)
Boston Red Sox (+4500)
The struggles for the Rays recently are worth considering and should not be minimized. Toward the end of the first half of the season, the Rays' pitching injuries caught up with them.
Tampa Bay lost lefty Jeffrey Springs, who had an excellent start to the season, to Tommy John surgery after making just three starts. In 16 innings pitched, he was 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA, 0.50 WHIP and 24 strikeouts and just four walks.
Drew Rasmussen is out until the middle of 2024 with UCL surgery. Tyler Glasnow is 2-3 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in eight starts, the most recent of which he was pulled early due to cramps.
Then there's the offense, which probably outperformed itself early in the season. Since April, the Rays' OPS has dipped each month from .885 to .788 in May; .740 in June and a lousy .584 through just eight games in July.
Tampa lost its first seven games of the month before finishing ahead of the break with a 10-4 against Atlanta, arguably the best team in baseball.
This is a good baseball team, but not the great one their record indicated after the first week of May, when Tampa was 27-7.
Meanwhile, the Baltimore Orioles have been remarkably consistent. They were 22-11 after that first week, and maintained a winning percentage above .600. They are a slightly above average hitting team that's done an even better job of creating and producing runs.
The question for Baltimore is still whether its pitching holds up against one of the stronger remaining schedules in baseball. While every team is above .500 in the AL East, none of them appear to be either as good as the Rays, or likely to track them down.
Not the Yankees and their Royals-level offense without Aaron Judge, who still seems far away from returning. The Blue Jays are a safe bet for a wild card spot, but hard to imagine them overcoming a seven game deficit in the sports most loaded division.
Even with the Rays' struggles, they are the only team with a higher expected win-loss record than their actual record.
Tampa is, at once, not as good as we once thought, but still the best team in the AL East.
Buy or Sell Rays Winning the Division: Buy
Current Odds
Minnesota Twins (-145)
Cleveland Guardians (+130)
Chicago White Sox (+2500)
Detroit Tigers (+3000)
Kansas City Royals (+80000)
Let's be honest. No one really wants to win this division. At least it doesn't seem that way.
The AL Central leading Cleveland Guardians barely have a .500 record. The AL Central betting favorite Minnesota Twins are below .500 after 91 games.
It feels like a division headed nowhere, considering the competition in the AL East and the defending World Series champion Houston Astros lurking chasing the Texas Rangers in the AL West.
Consider that no one in the AL Central has a winning record against teams above .500, while all but one AL East team have winning records against such teams. Every AL East team has a positive run differential. Only the Twins have a positive run differential of the AL Central teams.
But someone has to win this thing. That should be Minnesota. The Twins lead the division in most relevant hitting and pitching stats.
They also are the only team in the division with a higher expected win-loss record than actual record, except the Kansas City Royals, who sit at the bottom of the division and have no chance.
Buy or Sell Twins Winning the Division: Buy
Current Odds
Houston Astros (-115)
Texas Rangers (+135)
Seattle Mariners (+800)
Los Angeles Angels (+2800)
Oakland Athletics (+100000)
Just two weeks after boldly and foolishly predicting the Astros would miss the postseason, it's already time to bail on it.
Missing the postseason still seems more likely than them actually repeating as World Series champions, but this division is there for the taking.
There is a bit of fool's gold with the Rangers, similar to the Rays. The difference is the team chasing the Rangers is better than them.
Texas has taken a tumble over the past 30 games, not having won a series in their past five. The Rangers are 3-6 in July, dropping two of three against the Astros, Boston Red Sox and Washington Nationals.
They went 14-13 in June after going 18-9 in May and 16-11 in April. The Rangers' bullpen still needs sorting out after being exposed with only one day off over the last month.
Since June, their relievers have the highest ERA of any team currently positioned to make the playoffs. They need to add another reliever at the trade deadline in addition to Arlodis Chapman. Their offense is still arguably the best in the American League.
But the Astros are on their heels, are expected to get healthier with the return of Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve, and have experience on their side.
They took two of three on the road against Texas to start July and have scored more runs than any other American League team in the last 15 days.
The Astros also don't have the pitching concerns of the Rangers, instead sporting the lowest ERA in the AL and fifth-highest fWAR.
They are doing this despite losing three-fifths of their rotation for much of the season, with rookies like Hunter Brown, JP France and Ronel Blanco making key starts.
Imagine how it looks once they re-insert a perennial MVP candidate in Alvarez and three-time batting champion in Altuve into the lineup.
Buy or Sell Astros Winning the Division: Buy
Current Odds
Atlanta (-5000)
Philadelphia Phillies (+4000)
Miami Marlins (+4500)
New York Mets (+30000)
Washington Nationals (+8000)
This one is the easiest division to project. Atlanta is not only the clear-cut best team in the NL East, but also makes a strong case for the best team in baseball.
It's the only team with 60 wins and fewer than 30 losses at the All-Star break. Atlanta's +147 run differential is also the highest in the NL, more than doubling the second-most by the Dodgers' +76.
Perhaps most impressive is that no one plays good teams better than Atlanta, carrying a 32-19 record against teams over .500. The team is just as good at opposing ballparks as it is at home.
There are no weaknesses.
Offensively, Atlanta has the highest fWAR in the NL, and third-highest across baseball. The pitching staff has the lowest ERA in baseball.
Similar to the Astros, who Atlanta beat in the World Series just two years ago, this is a team getting it done without most of its normal rotation with Max Fried's lengthy absence the notable exception.
The starters have been elite. The bullpen is elite. They have the likely NL MVP in Ronald Acuna Jr. It's all adding up.
The odds have Atlanta winning both its division, the NL pennant and the entire thing.
Buy or Sell Atlanta Winning the Division: Buy
Current Odds
Milwaukee Brewers (-110)
Cincinnati Reds (+130)
Chicago Cubs (+850)
St. Louis Cardinals (+2000)
Pittsburgh Pirates (+6000)
For as easy as it is to call the NL East, it's just as difficult to figure out the NL Central. The Brewers are the betting favorite and have led the division most of the time since early June.
Milwaukee is the only team in this division with a .500 record against teams over .500, while the Chicago Cubs are the only ones with a positive run differential.
Yet it's the Reds sitting atop the division, one game ahead of the Brewers. Cincinnati is 7-3 over its last 10 games and 24-12 since June with an offense that just keeps getting better.
They posted a paltry .694 OPS in April; then .756 in May; and .791 in June before .810 in the first nine games of July. Only Atlanta has a higher OPS or have scored more runs in the NL over the past 30 days. A direct correlation can be made to Elly De La Cruz's debut on June 6 and the offensive turnaround.
Like its American League counterpart, the NL Central is a division someone has to win, but no true winner truly emerges.
Given the Reds' recent and steady surge, expect them to be the last NL Central team standing as their weak starting rotation gets a big boost from the returns of Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo in August.
Buy or Sell Brewers Winning the Division: Sell, the Reds are up
Current Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers (-230)
Arizona Diamondbacks (+400)
San Francisco Giants (+600)
San Diego Padres (+2200)
Colorado Rockies (+80000)
The Diamondbacks are a nice story and it will be cool to see them as a Wild Card if they continue on this track.
But this is the Dodgers' division to win. Despite an inactive offseason, the Dodgers returned the best team in the NL West and took a slight lead over the Diamondbacks by winning percentage (Los Angeles has played two fewer games).
The Dodgers have the best run differential in the division and the second-best in the NL. Their pitching is noticeably mediocre, ranking 11th in fWAR with the eight-highest ERA in baseball.
But it appears they are fine simply outhitting teams consistently. Only Atlanta and the Texas Rangers have a higher OPS. Those teams and the Rays are the only teams with more runs scored.
The Dodgers speciality: the long ball. Only Atlanta has hit more home runs.
Then there is the experience advantage they have over a young Diamondbacks team that can't be discounted.
The San Francisco Giants are a legitimate Wild-Card worthy team and the underachieving San Diego Padres could turn things around after the break, but it would take a lot to overcome the 8.5-game deficit with the Dodgers.
Buy or Sell Dodgers Winning the Division: Buy
