Caesar's Better Bettor: It's mostly over for Mizzou's football team this season

Mizzou has had a fine season to date on the football field, winning six of its seven games. But the Tigers have not been as successful for those who have been backing them at the betting windows, as they are 4-3 against the pointspread.

But they’ve been on a heater of late against the betting lines, having covered in four of their last five games. The exception was two weeks ago against Louisiana State, when an LSU interception return for a touchdown in the final minute sent MU from winners to losers at the windows.

Mizzou is in the favorite’s role this Saturday, when it entertains South Carolina at 2:30 p.m. The Tigers opened as a 6½-point favorite and as of Friday afternoon the line had moved to 7½ at all three St. Louis-area walk-in sportsbooks — Barstool (Argosy Casino in Alton), DraftKings (Casino Queen in East St. Louis) and FanDuel (Fairmount Park horse track in Collinsville).

More profitable has been wagering on Tigers and their foe to combine to score more than the number of points games posted on the betting line. MU’s last five games have exceeded the total, and Mizzou is 6-1 to the over this season. That’s 86%, and only three teams in college football have gone over more often this year — Vanderbilt is 8-0 to the over, LSU is 7-0 and Massachusetts is 7-1. Boston College has a higher “over” percentage than Mizzou, but has had fewer games in which totals were offered. The Eagles are 5-0-1 to the over.

South Carolina, meanwhile, has gone over in its last three outings and Gamecocks games are 4-2 in that category for the season.

The most favorable MU-South Carolina number among the local books for over bettors as of Friday afternoon was 58½, at FanDuel.

Meanwhile, the Tigers are on the verge of going over the preseason betting line for number of regular-season games they would win (6½). All it takes is for them to prevail in one of their final five games to move past that figure.

What a run

No matter what happens Saturday night when City SC plays its final Major League Soccer regular-season match of its inaugural campaign, it will go down as a stellar year.

And that’s true at the betting windows as well as in the standings. City won its first five games, a feat never previously accomplished by an MLS expansion franchise, and will finish atop the Western Conference and soon head to the playoffs.

Even if the club loses Saturday when Seattle comes to town for an 8 p.m. contest, those folks who have bet $100 on City to win each of its MLS outings and placed the wagers using the three-way line still will be ahead by $1,174.

On that line, the bettor either picks one of the teams to win or wagers that the match will end in a draw. On the conventional two-way line, the only choices are on which team will win — bets are refunded in the event of a tie. Because there is a greater risk of losing on the three-way line, the returns are bigger than on the two-way option and City SC backers often cashed in on big longshot three-way prices early in the season.

If City SC wins Saturday, the profit will be $1,409. That’s based on betting $100 and using the best three-way price, which as of Friday afternoon was +135 at each of the area sportsbooks.

The high-water mark of the season was $1,470.

Mattress Mack donates

Flamboyant Houston furniture store owner Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale has a lot riding on his beloved Astros baseball team, with a series of bets totaling $4.9 million active on them to win the World Series that if successful would be worth a profit of $31.4 million.

It didn’t look so good after the first two games of the ongoing best-of-seven American League Championship Series, which Houston lost at home to Texas. But the Astros rebounded to win three road games against the Rangers and head back home in great shape.

He won more than $70 million last year when Houston captured baseball’s biggest prize after making a huge amount of bets on the team in order to hedge against a promotion he had in his stores, in which customers who spent at least $3,000 on designated items — including mattresses — would receive double their money back if the Astros won the Series.

So he said his actual profit was small.

McIngvale certainly likes the spotlight, and it recently was shining on him for a reason in addition to his huge wagers. He and his wife donated $50,000 to a fund benefitting former American gymnast Mary Lou Retton, the 1984 Olympic gold medalist, who has been hospitalized because of a rare form of pneumonia. She does not have medical insurance, her daughter said, and has been piling up huge bills for her treatments.

The daughter, Shayla Kelley Schrep, said on social media this week that Retton had a “pretty scary setback.”

Retton has lived in the Houston area since retiring from gymnastics competition in 1986.

“Mary Lou was always a shining point of light, as George Bush would say, and we pray for Mary Lou’s recovery,” McIngvale told TMZ Sports. “The $50,000 is the least we could do to help an American icon get better.”

Upcoming picks

We were 4-1 with our selections last week and ahead five units, leaving our record for the season at 11-11-1 and down four units. We’re back at it this week with picks that can range from one unit (•) to five (•••••). Odds listed are the most favorable among the local sportsbooks as of Friday afternoon:

> Central Florida at Oklahoma, 11 a.m. Saturday: Both teams often are in high-scoring affairs, and this should be no exception as the defenses can be beaten and the offenses purr. Game total over 67 (DraftKings) ••

> Minnesota at Iowa, 2:20 p.m. Saturday: With scoring expected to be at a premium here (see item above) and Iowa’s injury-burdened offense slogging along, we’ll take the points here with the road team that was off last week and faces a Hawkeyes squad that hasn’t had a bye yet. Minnesota +3½ (all three books) •

> Utah at Southern California, 7 p.m. Saturday: Look for USC to bounce back strongly from its loss last week at Notre Dame. Southern Cal faces a foe that has been having trouble offensively, thus hurting its ability to cash in big on the Trojans’ weak defense. Utah hasn’t allowed more than 21 points in any game this season, but then again it hasn’t faced an attack as potent as it will have to deal with here. On top of this, the Trojans will be seeking revenge for three straight losses in the series. USC -7 (all three books)••

> Also in the same game: USC over 29½ team points (DraftKings) ••••

> Las Vegas at Chicago, noon Sunday: Don’t look for the Bears to do much offensively with QB Tyson Bagent making his first NFL start as he replaces the injured Justin Fields. And the Raiders likely will be without injured quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, which would have them turn to either rookie Aidan O’Connell or journeyman Brian Hoyer. Neither team is an offensive juggernaut with a healthy QB. Look for a lot of grinding here. Game total under 37½ (all three books)••