Canadiens vs Lightning Odds, Picks, and Prediction
The Montreal Canadiens emerge from the Holiday break tasked with facing the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Lightning and Canadiens might be in the same division and have lost their last two games, but that is where the similarities between these two teams end this season.
This is the second head-to-head matchup between the Canadiens and Lightning this season, with Tampa Bay winning the first meeting 5-1 on December 17th. We’ll review the trends, stats, and odds and make our Canadiens vs Lightning picks, and have you ready for a 7 p.m. ET puck drop.
Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Odds
Our Canadiens vs Lightning Picks might seem like a foregone conclusion when reviewing the NHL odds and betting records for this game.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are the heavy favorite on the moneyline, with odds ranging between -345 and -365. The Canadiens are the underdog, with odds listed from +275 and +285. The Lightning have a 20-12 record straight-up on the moneyline, while the Canadiens have a 15-19 straight-up record.
Montreal is listed at +1.5 goals on the puck line spread, with odds ranging from +107 to +120. Tampa Bay is listed at -1.5 goals, with odds from -129 to -143. The Lightning have a 14-18 record against the spread (ats), while the Canadiens have an 18-16 ats record.
The total goals betting line is set at six, which is slightly lower than the average used for most games on the NHL schedule. Using a total goals betting line of 6.0 goals, the over is listed at +120, while the under is listed at +100. Montreal has a 12-19-3 over/under record, while Tampa Bay is 16-15-1 over/under.l
Matchup Information
- Game: Montreal Canadiens (15-16-3) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (20-11-1)
- Where: Amalie Arena, Tampa, Florida
- When: Wednesday, December 28th, 2022, 7 p.m. ET
Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Analysis
Montreal Canadiens Analysis
The Montreal Canadiens enter Wednesday’s matchup with a 15-16-3 record, ranking eighth in the Atlantic Division NHL standings. The Canadiens have lost four of their last five games, with three games ending in at least a 1.5-goal spread and three games hitting the total goals line of six goals.
Not-so-fun-fact for Canadiens fans, Montreal is 1-10 in the last 11 NHL games in Tampa Bay, and 7-19 in the last 26 overall. The under is 4-0-1 in the Canadiens’ last five road games.
Montreal is averaging 2.7 goals per game and is ranked 28th in the NHL while giving up 3.5 goals per game (25th overall). The Canadiens have the worst powerplay in the NHL, converting on 14.2% of their chances, while the penalty killers are a bright spot, operating at 77.2% and ranked 20th in the league.
Montreal has used a reasonably consistent goaltending rotation compared to many NHL teams this season. If the Canadiens follow that rotation, then Sam Montembeault (6-3-2, 2.89 GAA, .912 SV%) should get the start for the Canadiens. However, with this being Montreal’s first game after the Holiday break, there is a higher-than-normal chance that Jake Allen (9-13-1, 3.26 GAA, .900 SV%) will get the start for the Canadiens.
Tampa Bay Lightning Analysis
The Tampa Bay Lightning are ranked third in the Atlantic Division with a 20-11-1 record. The Lightning has lost their last two games but has won three of the last five. All five of those games ended in at least a 1.5-goal spread, while three games hit at least the total goals betting line of 6 goals.
The Under is 3-1-1 in the Lightning’s last five games against Atlantic Division competition and 4-1-1 in the last six games against teams with a losing record.
Nikita Kucherov leads the Lightning’s recognizable cast of characters in NHL player stats with 49 points (13 goals, 36 assists). Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Steven Stamkos have the Lightning ranked third in goals per game, averaging 3.6 goals while giving up 3.0 goals (13th overall). Tampa Bay’s special team’s units are ranked ninth overall, with the penalty killers operating at 80.8% and the powerplay converting at 26.3%.
While Brian Elliot (7-2-0, 3.31 GAA, .894 SV%) started the Lightning’s last game against the Detroit Red Wings, Andrei Vasilevskiy (13-9-1, 2.53 GAA, .917 SV%) has started four of the previous six games. With Tampa Bay playing the New York Rangers tomorrow night, we might see unusual back-to-back starts for Elliot, albeit separated by four days.
Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview
With nothing notable to report from the NHL injury report, we can jump directly into our Canadiens vs Lightning picks.
The favorite is 21-5 in the last 26 meetings, and we expect that trend to continue. Our first Canadiens vs Lightning pick is to take the Tampa Bay Lightning as huge favorites to win on the moneyline. To get the most value from the Lightning being very heavy favorites on the moneyline, you can parlay the Lightning to cover the -1.5 goal spread as well. Tampa Bay has covered the spread in its last three wins.
Our final Canadiens vs Lightning pick is to take the under. The Canadiens have been playing in a many low scoring games, while Tampa Bay has cleared six total goals twice in the last five games.
NHL picks: Tampa Bay Lighting moneyline, Tampa Bay Lighting -1.5, under
If you love sports and want more sports betting information@InsidersBetDigfree betting picks.
