Canucks numbers: Is Nils Höglander the right fit for the Miller line?
Who is going to play left wing with J.T. Miller is a question again.
In training camp and through the first month-plus of the season, the answer had been pretty solidly “Phil Di Giuseppe.”
But you knew that wasn’t going to last forever. Di Giuseppe may be the team’s best forechecker, but he’s a career “tweener” — a guy who is a little too good for the American Hockey League, but has never quite locked down a full-time spot in the NHL.
He has played well as a Canuck and head coach Rick Tocchet is clearly a fan, but the long-term reality for Di Giuseppe is as a third- or fourth-liner, not skating on one of the team’s top scoring lines. He’s fine there, but if you really want to make noise in the playoffs, that’s a spot to upgrade, find a player who not only forces opposing defencemen into difficult spots but who is also a little bit quicker and a little bit of a better finisher.
For a brief moment, Tocchet considered Anthony Beauvillier. The winger certainly had enough scoring talent to fit in, but his game wasn’t quite suited to the spot. That line needs a high-end fetcher, a player who forechecks with aggression and looks to trap the opposition’s defencemen.
Beauvillier didn’t fit the bill and has now been traded.
Might Nils Höglander be a better fit? The feisty Swede has seven goals on the year, an impressive total given he’s consistently the low-minute man on the Canucks every night.
But in those limited minutes, he has been a pretty competent player. He’s been on the ice for just three goals against. His shot metrics are decent too — the Canucks are roughly 50/50 in terms of shots for and against when he is on the ice.
Over the past three seasons, in the 265 minutes he has skated with Miller, the Canucks have scored more than 60 per cent of the goals. Those are good returns.
The fit may be there, but his head coach is still cautious about committing to Höglander in the role. It’s about details, he insists. About how he forechecks, does he get caught going too wide, Tocchet said Thursday. That’s an issue Tocchet has seen in reviewing the winger’s play.
“That’s why we get odd-man rushes, and he corrected himself last game. Twice. I could see he wanted to do the old habit, but he went ‘Oh!’ and he put the brakes on and he got it (right),” Tocchet said.
“That’s the next step for him. Like now it should be, it’s habitual for him, where he knows where he has to be. But I saw that last game where he corrected himself. I didn’t see that before. He would just go wide and then you have a three on two against.”
Here are a few other numbers we’re thinking about this week:
65.9
Conor Garland was once in trade talks. Given how well he is playing in a depth role, you have to think the Canucks are less keen to move on from him.
When Garland is on the ice, the Canucks are generating 65.9 shot attempts per 60 minutes of even-strength ice time. That’s the best rate of any Canuck regular this season.
He also has the highest shot attempts percentage of any Canuck: 58.5 per cent of the shots taken while he is on the ice are by the Canucks.
When your third line is dominating play like that, you know your team is playing well as a whole.
4.8
If you’re looking for a player to bet on going on a bit of a hot streak, look no further than Garland’s linemate Dakota Joshua.
The Canucks have scored on just 4.8 per cent of the five-on-five shots taken while the bruising winger is on the ice.
The usual shooting percentage is about double that.
Bounces are going to go Joshua’s way soon.
13
Brock Boeser needs just 13 goals to hit the magical 30.
That’s just a simple, positive note for a player who is working hard and deserves the results he’s getting.
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