Canucks vs Kings Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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05 March 2024

Canucks vs Kings Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Thatcher Demko wasn't at his best the last time he saw the Kings, but he's had time to stew since. Meanwhile, Cam Talbot has seemingly recaptured his rock-solid form from the fall. Our NHL betting picks expect goals to be precious here.

The Vancouver Canucks don’t have to wait long to avenge last week's 5-1 loss to the Los Angeles Kings on home ice, but their 6-8 SU record over the last 30 days is a little concerning. Needing to maintain their ranks in the Western Conference vs. the Kings, who have won seven of their last 10, the books are calling this a pick ‘em.

Considering the Over has not hit in nine straight meetings and both offenses come into tonight's match in poor form, is getting on this Under 6 the best move in a game that should see a playoff atmosphere and possible move to 5.5?

I break down the NHL odds and offer my free NHL picks for Canucks vs. Kings for Tuesday, March 5.

Canucks vs Kings odds

Canucks vs Kings predictions

The Los Angeles Kings have been one of the best Under teams in hockey with a 21-36-3 O/U record. They enter tonight missing top-line winger Adrian Kempe and have hit the Over just twice over their last 10 games.

Under 6 at -120 is the play tonight as goalie Cam Talbot has found his early-season form when he was one of the best netminders in hockey. The starting goalie has given up just a single goal in four of his last five starts and since the All-Star break, he has a 1.70 GAA with a .944 save percentage. Talbot stopped 22 of 23 shots last Thursday vs. the Vancouver Canucks on the road.

"You don't forget how to play the position. Sometimes it's just between the ears and you've just got to get that confidence back," Talbot told reporters following his 5-1 win over the Devils where he stopped 30 of 31. "Once you get a win, it starts to snowball a little bit."

Neither offense comes into tonight in great form. The Canucks are scoring 2.9 goals per game over their last 10, which also includes a brutal power play that ranks 29th over that stretch. Rick Tocchet has diluted his lines as Elias Pettersson is currently playing with Nils Hoglander and Pius Suter at 5-on-5. The Kings' 2.92 goals per game since the start of February ranks 22nd in hockey.

The Under 6 has been taking money all day and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this hit 5.5 in some places. The last meeting closed with a total of 6 in the 5-1 L.A. win but there were just 44 total shots in the game, five total power plays, and 4.19 expected goals, per Money Puck.

With the Kings trying to maintain their Wild Card spot and the Canucks slipping a bit in the West, this is going to be a tight game. The rematch happening so quickly only helps the Under in terms of a physical, tight game.

Canucks vs Kings same-game parlay

Under 6.5Under 1.5 1P

Kings moneyline

There are no flat totals for the SGP here so I'm bumping it up to 6.5, but hitting the first period Under 1.5 to add to boost the odds. Vancouver has been a great first-period team, but the Kings also see the second-fewest total first-period goals in hockey, allowing just 39 over 60 games.

This is a game that is going to be spirited thanks to L.A.'s 5-1 win in Vancouver last week. That's going to lead to less ice and fewer scoring chances. There weren't many scoring chances in the previous meeting anyway with just 44 total shots. Thatcher Demko stopped 15 of 20 shots and hasn't played since.

I'm banking on Talbot being more of his November self compared to his December to January output.

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Canucks vs Kings moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Sports Interaction opened the Kings as a slight -115 home favorite tonight but this line moved to a pick 'em first thing this morning. The total is also starting to fall and could close at 5.5 after closing at 6 in the meeting last Thursday.

L.A. closed as a +135 road underdog in that 5-1 win last week, which puts today’s price at 45 points different, which is right where it should be if you consider the previous moneyline to be efficient. There is a 20-point adjustment from hosting a game to playing on a neutral site, so changing venues like this is worth around 40 points.

That last game featured very few scoring chances and two of the six goals came on the power play. Demko did let in all five goals on just 20 shots. The Vancouver goalie is likely due for a better performance, but the Canucks’ offense is slowing down and Talbot has found his elite form again in the L.A. net. I might look dumb for buying back in on the Kings, but this has been a much better team metric-wise at 5-on-5 since the break, sitting as a Top-5 team in Fenwick differential, scoring chance differential, and save percentage.

On paper, the Kings still look like the better team as well. Vancouver has Pettersson, Brock Boeser, and J.T. Miller, but after that they're weak, especially on the wings.

The Canucks are also playing young winger Vasily Podkolzin on the third line and PP2 after recalling him last week. He has just 33 points over 119 NHL games (seven points in his last 40 games). He is a representation of the Canucks’ struggles to find scoring on the wing.

I love the Under 6 here but am happy to back the Kings if this is going to sit as a pick ‘em.