Capitals vs Golden Knights Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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01 December 2023

Capitals vs Golden Knights Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

As the Washington Capitals continue their West Coast swing, they stop in Vegas to take on a very stingy Golden Knights team. Our NHL picks are expecting a low-scoring affair behind two more-than-capable goalies protecting the old onion bag.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Vegas Golden Knights host the Washington Capitals in the late window of Saturday’s NHL slate.

These teams just squared off a couple of weeks ago, with Washington claiming a 3-0 victory in a low-scoring affair.

Will history repeat itself, or can these two teams buck the NHL odds and see the goals pick up this time around? Find out in our free NHL picks for Capitals vs. Golden Knights on Saturday, December 2.

Capitals vs Golden Knights odds

Capitals vs Golden Knights predictions

The Vegas Golden Knights enter this contest amidst a stretch of low-scoring games, with five or fewer total goals scored in eight of its past 11 games. Multiple factors have contributed to this trend.

First, the Knights’ offense has struggled to get things going as they rank 18th in the league in goals scored per game. The power play has been slightly better, ranking 13th, but that could be neutralized by an equally strong Washington Capitals penalty kill that also ranks in the top half of the league.

Second, the Golden Knights’ blue line and goaltending have been tough to beat, ranking second in goals allowed per game. With goaltender Adin Hill listed as day-to-day with a lower-body injury, backup goaltender Logan Thompson is expected to take the crease on Saturday.

That is likely a factor in the Under 5.5 coming back at plus-money at FanDuel, but I would argue he is not much of a downgrade from Hill. Through 11 appearances in the crease this season, Thompson boasts a .916 SV% and 2.49 GAA.

This success is likely to continue against the Caps, a team that Thompson is 3-1 against in his career with a .909 SV% and 2.16 GAA. Vegas’ strong combination of two-way play and goaltending is likely to give Washington plenty of fits, considering they rank 31st in goals scored per game.

However, like the Knights, the Capitals are better in the defensive zone as they rank eighth in goals allowed per game. With this combination of below-average offense and above-average defense, it is not surprising that there have also been five or fewer total goals scored in nine of their past 14 games.

My best bet: Under 5.5 (+104 at FanDuel)

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Capitals vs Golden Knights same-game parlay

Under 5.5 goals

Golden Knights moneyline

There is just not a single aspect of the game that Washington is better at than Vegas, which is why the Knights are laying north of two dollars despite the Caps entering this matchup amidst a 7-2-1 stretch over their past 10 games. Offensively, the Golden Knights rank higher in both goals scored per game and in expected goals per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5.

Defensively, they also rank higher in both goals allowed per game and expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). While the talented Darcy Kuemper is slated to take the crease for the Capitals on Saturday, Thompson has performed better than him this season.

On the micro-level, Vegas also outranks Washington in shooting percentage, power play percentage, penalty kill percentage and faceoff percentage.

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Capitals vs Golden Knights moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Golden Knights opened as a –200 favorite and have quickly been bet up to -220. At such a long number, I don’t suspect the market will keep inflating this line much further, but I also don’t think any amount of buyback will bring this line south of two dollars.

That brings us to the total, which is between 5.5 and 6 depending on the book. Not only do both teams enter this contest amidst stretches of low-scoring games, but there have also been five or fewer total goals scored in four of the past six meetings between these two clubs.

If you like the Under, I suggest locking it in sooner rather than later just because Adin Hill could be cleared to play, and if that moves the line, the only direction is down.