Cardinals-Braves prediction: Picks, odds on Thursday, September 7

After giving up double-digit runs in back-to-back losses to open this series, the Atlanta Braves (90-48) look to get back on track and avoid a rare home sweep as they take on the St. Louis Cardinals (61-78) on Thursday night. First pitch from Truist Park is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Veteran Adam Wainwright (3-10, 8.10 ERA) will take the mound for the Redbirds, while Atlanta counters with lefty Max Fried (6-1, 2.52).

The Braves enter as overwhelming -345 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with St. Louis at +275. The run total is set at 10.5.

Cardinals-Braves picks: Thursday, September 7

Injury report

Cardinals

Out: RP JoJo Romero (left knee tendinitis), OF Dylan Carlson (ankle soreness, oblique strain)

Braves

Out: SP Michael Soroka (right finger numbness), RP Daysbel Hernandez (right forearm inflammation), SP/RP Yonny Chirinos (right elbow inflammation), OF Ehire Adrianza (left shoulder strain)

Starting pitchers

Adam Wainwright vs. Max Fried

Wainwright has been quite possibly the worst starting pitcher in baseball this season, or at least the worst one still given the chance to make his 19th start. Kudos to the 42-year-old for gutting it out for another season — and he did manage to throw six innings of one-run ball against the Padres last time out — but the righty has gotten torched all year long, with a 10.89 ERA over five starts in August and the highest expected ERA and expected batting average in the Majors.

Fried, meanwhile, is back from the IL and starting to pitch like an NL Cy Young candidate again. The lefty dominated the Dodgers in his last start, allowing just three hits over seven shutout innings while striking out 10 — his fourth quality start in six outings since returning to Atlanta’s rotation at the start of August. Fried’s curveball has looked like one of the best in baseball of late, with a .128 BA against on the year and a 30.5% whiff rate.

Over/Under pick

I’m not sure there’s a number high enough to talk me out of the over here. Wainwright vs. this historic Braves lineup is the most lopsided matchup we’re liable to see all season, especially with Atlanta motivated to avoid a sweep tonight. They could very well clear this number by themselves, and if St. Louis gives them truly any help at all, I think we’ll coast past it.

Pick: Over 10.5

Moneyline pick

Don’t overthink this. It’s nearly impossible to imagine Wainwright surviving for more than a couple of innings against this team, and Fried has been rounding into form on the other side.