Cardinals-Braves prediction: Picks, odds on Tuesday, September 5

Fresh off taking three of four from the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend, the MLB-leading Atlanta Braves (90-46) look to keep their march to the postseason rolling as they welcome the St. Louis Cardinals (59-78) to town for a three-game set this week. First pitch of Tuesday’s opener from Truist Park is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. The Cards will send veteran Miles Mikolas (6-10, 4.66 ERA) to the mound, while Atlanta counters with Michael Soroka (2-1, 5.52) in his first MLB start since just after the All-Star break.

The Braves enter as -185 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with St. Louis at +154. The run total is set at 10.5.

Cardinals-Braves picks: Tuesday, September 5

Injury report

Cardinals

Day to day: SP Adam Wainwright (soreness)
Out: SP Steven Matz (lat), OF Dylan Carlson (oblique, ankle), RP JoJo Romero (knee)

Braves

Out: SP/RP Yonny Chirinos (elbow), OF Sam Hilliard (heel), SP Kyle Wright (shoulder), RP Nick Anderson (shoulder), RP Jesse Chavez (shin), OF Ehire Adrianza (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Miles Mikolas vs. Michael Soroka

Mikolas got his August off to a strong start, but things fell apart from there, with 19 earned runs allowed on 27 hits and seven walks across 23 innings of work over his last four outings. He did put up a quality start against the Padres last week, but that’s a bit misleading: The righty allowed three runs on eight hits and two walks over six innings while striking out just two batters. Mikolas has never had overpowering stuff, and he hasn’t been nearly as sharp with his command as he needs to be of late.

After more than three years and two successive Achilles tears, Soroka finally made his return to a Major League mound earlier this season. The righty was understandably rusty, posting a 7.45 ERA over his first four starts, but he was starting to pitch a bit better before the Braves sent him back down to Triple-A — where he’s put up a 3.41 ERA over 17 starts this season. Now with some more live game experience under his belt, we’ll hopefully see something closer to the Cy Young candidate Soroka was before his injuries.

Over/Under pick

Given how hittable Mikolas has been of late and how much firepower this Braves offense possesses, Atlanta might hit the over all by themselves tonight. Given Soroka’s shakiness at the Major League level — and St. Louis having scored five or more runs in four of their last five — we should be in for plenty of runs.

Pick: Over 10.5

Moneyline pick

Don’t overthink this one. Soroka might not be all that sharp, but he should give Atlanta around five innings of at least average pitching — which should be more than enough for this Braves offense to carry them to yet another win. There’s simply nothing to suggest that Mikolas can keep the Cardinals competitive in this spot barring something very fluky.