Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov Odds & Prediction

Karen Khachanov will attempt to do what most of his ATP Tour colleagues have had trouble doing: beating a healthy Carlos Alcaraz. The 26-year-old will play Alcaraz Wednesday (10 am EDT) at the Madrid Open, with a semifinal berth at stake. The Spaniard is heavily favored in the Alcaraz vs Khachanov odds but is he the best bet for your Madrid Open picks?

Alcaraz vs Khachanov Odds

At -950 odds, No. 1 seed Alcaraz is the prohibitive favorite in the Alcaraz vs Khachanov quarterfinal at the Madrid Open Wednesday. Khachanov is the underdog at +630 odds. Alcaraz vs Khachanov odds as of May 2 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Alcaraz Dominant vs Zverev

A year ago, Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev was the Madrid final. It went 6-3, 6-1 for Alcaraz.

Since then, Zverev suffered a serious ankle injury at the French Open. And nearly a year later, he’s still far from 100 percent.

But he had looked good in Madrid, despite coming in with a 10-11 record. He had a couple of good wins in Monte Carlo, and outlasted a game Roberto Carballes Baena earlier in the week and won the third set 6-0.

Then he ran into a juggernaut. It took an hour and 22 minutes, but Alcaraz ran all over him, 6-1, 6-2 to advance to the meeting with Khachanov.

Zverev has a better first serve than Khachanov. Theoretically, he probably returns better. But Alcaraz never faced a break point; he won 88 percent of his first-serve points (21-for-24), and 71 percent of his second serve points.

Khachanov Outdoes Doubles Partner Rublev

Andrey Rublev won his last match against Khachanov. It was just a couple of weeks ago, in the third round of Monte Carlo on Rublev’s way to the title.

But Tuesday in Madrid, Khachanov turned the tables, with a similar score – 7-6 (8), 6-4. The two friends and doubles partners had been tied 3-3, going all the way back to their first meeting in 2014 at a small Futures event in Kazakhstan.

Alcaraz vs Khachanov Head-to-Head

Alcaraz vs Khachanov History

There’s a seven-year age gap, with Khachanov the elder. But even though Alcaraz has been around the circuit a few times, they first met less than a year ago, in the round of 16 at the French Open.

Alcaraz vs Khachanov Match History

That one went the Spaniard’s way. And so did a rematch a couple of months later in Hamburg.

That one, actually, was even easier. It took an hour and nine minutes; Alcaraz was even more successful with his second serve (8-for-11, 73 per cent) than on his first serve (71 per cent).

Khachanov managed just one break point; Alcaraz went 5-for-11 on break-point chances.

The numbers were nearly as good at their French Open meetings, which was best-of-five but only went three sets. A little over two hours, with Alcaraz successful on 5-of-12 break-point chances.

Alcaraz vs Khachanov Prediction

There’s really not a lot there for Khachanov to hang his hat on, in assessing his chances of pulling off a pretty massive upset.

Especially as Alcaraz has the home crowd. And he hasn’t dropped a set since losing the first one of his tournament to Emil Ruusuvuori.

The way to get to him is – perhaps – to simply overpower him. But you have to get the material to work with.

Nothing Alcaraz has shown the last few weeks tells you he’s anywhere close to flinching.

In fact, he’s only gathering a head of steam. And that is pretty dire news for Khachanov.

The best prop bet in the Alcaraz vs Khachanov odds has Khachanov and +4.5 games at +118 (which would work out to something like a 6-4, 6-4 defeat). But given their history, even that seems iffy.

Alcaraz vs Khachanov Prediction: Under 19.5 Games (+116)

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