Carlos Alcaraz vs. Matteo Berrettini odds, prediction: Wimbledon Round of 16

Matteo Berrettini couldn’t have picked a better time to find some form.

After an ugly start to 2023 that saw the former world No. 6 battle injury issues and lose nine of 16 tour-level matches, Berrettini is now one win away from the quarterfinals at Wimbledon.

Berrettini, who was a triple-digit long shot to win Wimbledon despite being a finalist in 2021, is a +185 underdog against top-ranked Carlos Alcaraz on Monday.

The path for Berrettini has been tricky, but the Italian has handled it with aplomb.

He was an underdog against compatriot Lorenzo Sonego in Round 1 and then defeated 15th-seed Alex de Minaur and 19th-seed Alexander Zverev in straight sets in his last two outings.

Berrettini has won nine sets on the spin.

Alcaraz vs. Berrettini prediction

(1:35 p.m. ET.)

As impressive as Berrettini’s resurgence has been, Alcaraz provides a very different challenge for Berrettini.

Alcaraz’s return game is among the best in the world and Berrettini is very reliant on his serve to dictate the tempo of a match.

Players who can put Berrettini’s serve back in play stand a good chance of outlasting him in best-of-five matches.

Money has already come in on Berrettini since the market opened on Saturday and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Italian to continue to get support as we get closer to match time.

Alcaraz has barely put a foot wrong at Wimbledon, but bettors tend to get infatuated with resurgent players like Berrettini at times like this.

That momentum should provide value going the other way on Monday.

THE PLAY: Alcaraz -1.5 sets (+110, FanDuel)