Carolina Hurricanes vs. Florida Panthers Game 4 odds and picks
The Florida Panthers have a chance to advance to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since 1996. They own a 3-0 series lead over the Carolina Hurricanes and enter Game 4 as slight -115 home favorites with a total of 5.5 leaning to the Under.
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Sergei Bobrovsky has emerged as the betting favorite for the Conn Smythe Trophy thanks to a 10-1 record over his last 11 games including seven straight games won by a single goal. The Carolina offense struggled to score down the stretch in the regular season and those habits have resurfaced in this third-round series.
I break down the matchup and more in my Hurricanes vs. Panthers NHL betting picks below.
Hurricanes vs Panthers Game 4 odds
Hurricanes vs Panthers Game 4 predictions
The Carolina Hurricanes have scored just three goals in the series and despite winning all the possession metrics and the shots on goal percentage, they have no answer for Sergei Bobrovsky.
At all strengths, the Hurricanes have a 2.22% shooting percentage in the series and a 2.86 SH% on its high-danger chances. These are incredibly low numbers and they’re running out of time to correct them, and the way Carolina was scoring entering the playoffs doesn’t give me a lot of faith that the Canes are going to figure it out tonight.
Between March 1 and the start of the playoffs, Carolina had the worst SH% at all strengths in hockey including the worst HDSH%. We forgot about it while they played the Islanders and New Jersey and racked up a Top-3 SH% and a HDSH% nearly 10 points higher than its season average.
Now, they’re struggling to score and it shouldn’t really surprise many. This is still a Florida Panthers team that held Toronto to two or fewer goals in five straight games and now the Hurricanes have three goals in three games on 135 shots for a 2.22% SH% and 2.86% on HDCF.
Over a longer amount of time, these numbers will improve but with potentially just one game remaining on their season, I don’t like the chances of it magically happening tonight.
It’s not like Carolina isn’t getting shots away. The Canes have at least a 56% Corsi%, Fenwick%, and SOG% share in the series but they lead all third-round teams in low-danger chances.
It’s going to be another low-scoring affair in Game 4. The Canes are squeezing the sticks hard and I don’t see that trend changing tonight.
My best bet: Carolina team total Under 2.5 (+105 at bet365)
Hurricanes vs Panthers Game 4 same-game parlay
Carolina team total Under 2.5 (+105)
Sebastian Aho Over 2.5 shots on goal (-125)
Gustav Forsling Over 1.5 blocked shots (-140)
The Carolina team total Under and Aho Over are giving us a better multiplier than true odds thanks to them technically working against each other. However, Carolina has no issue getting low-quality shots on net in the series but is struggling to beat Bobrovsky.
Aho could see bigger minutes tonight with the season on the line and him being the team’s best offensive player. He went 5-1 to the Over on this prop in the first round and is 2-1 to the Over vs. Florida.
Carolina has dominated the shot attempt share in the series and is still getting roughly 64 shot attempts per game (all strengths) which leads all teams in the third round. Carolina will have to continue to get shots on Bobrovsky if the Canes want to beat him and that could lead to more blocked shot chances for Gustav Forsling, who leads his team in the category in the playoffs and sees heavy minutes.
Hurricanes vs Panthers betting trend to know
The Hurricanes are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Hurricanes vs. Panthers.
Hurricanes vs Panthers Game 4 injuries
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