Caroline Garcia vs Tatjana Maria Pick

Tatjana Maria vs Caroline Garcia
April 20, 2023 9:00 am EDT
The Line: Caroline Garcia -333 / Tatjana Maria +250
(Get latest betting odds)

Tatjana Maria and Caroline Garcia meet in the second round of the 2023 tennis Stuttgart Open. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.

Tatjana Maria is coming off a 3 sets win over Ylena In-Albon that took 31 games to decide. In the victory, Maria won 76 percent of her first serve points and 52 percent of her second serve points. Maria won 66 percent of her total service points and converted on 2 of her 8 break points. Maria got 57 percent of her first serves in play and saved 6 of her 7 break points. The match took over 2 and a half hours, so conditioning may be an issue moving forward. Maria has 5 career wins over top-10 players, with the most recent coming in last year’s Wimbledon. Maria has won 6 straight matches on clay court. 

Caroline Garcia is coming off 2 Billie Jean King qualifying victories over Harriet Dart and Katie Boulter that were decided in 3 sets. Garcia has lost 2 of her last 4 matches, and playing back to back 3 setters against players ranked outside of the top-100 isn’t encouraging. Garcia has a combined 79 unforced errors in her last 2 matches, and that’s something she has to clean up. Garcia has lost her opening match 3 times since San Diego last year. Garcia has won 8 of her last 10 matches on clay court. 

Garcia won the only match against Maria, which was a 3 set win in 2015 Birmingham. 

Maria has a shot here given how sloppy Garcia has been in recent matches. However, I’ll give Garcia the benefit of the doubt because she’s the better player overall, and she’s gotten very comfortable on clay. Maria also doesn’t have the best track record against top tier players.

Give me Garcia, and I’ll take her in straight sets to shave down the price.